Arhive: #4 2019
NEW RESEARCH INTO REGIONAL ECONOMY PROBLEMS
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Author P. A. Minakir,In 2014, the Russian government adopted a law on strategic planning. In the period from 2015 to 2017, regional development strategies were shaped in accordance with this law. Further, in the period from 2018 to 2019, the government has been developing the national strategy of spatial development, which is clashing with both regional strategies and fundamental principles of the economic theory of spatial development. The article considers the set of such conflicts and assesses their possible consequences. I use the method of comparative analysis, examining how special (for Russian conditions) and theoretical models of spatial development respond to the decisions proposed by the strategy. The strategy includes various concepts that aim to maximize agglomeration effects, identify priority regions, create homogeneous macro-regions, suppress economic and social heterogeneity, and maximize the regions’ competitiveness. I demonstrate that in the strategy, none of the concept’s fragments achieve the proposed decisions correlating with canonical theoretical concepts (the concept of placement of firms and industries, models of spatial development and growth, concepts of spatial diversity and inequality, principles and forms of regional state policy). The strategy identifies the directions of spatial development, which formally correspond to the traditional theoretical models of regional development. However, these directions either are implemented within the inertial development of the spatial system of the Russian Federation, or are modified according to Russian economic and geographical space, while the strategy does not consider these modifications. This leads to a conflict between the goals declared in the strategy and the real problems of the Russian economic space’s functioning in terms of socio-economic inequality, and maximized effects of agglomeration, regional rents, and the regions’ competitiveness. Additionally, I pay particular attention to the problem of shaping the target for strategic spatial planning. The paper has demonstrated that a productive strategy is possible in case of considering the economic space as a system of economically interacting regions, and not an additive set of administrative regions.
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The rapid growth of trade between Asia and Europe facilitated the revival of the Great Silk Road that used to be one of the main trade routes. The new Silk Road can pass through the territory of several states, contributing to their economic growth. The exact route of the new Silk Road is yet to be defined, as there are several alternative options. We developed a mathematical model based on the thermal conductivity equation, which is widely used in physics. Our model assesses how Trans-Eurasian transport flows will change in case of implementing a particular route variant of the Chinese project “One belt, One road” (taking into account the modernisation of the Russian railway network). Based on the spatial distribution of the goods’ supply and demand, this spatial model simulates and predicts the flow of goods in a particular geographical area. The model uses correlations linking the characteristics of commodity flows and the spatial distribution of prices in the considered territory. We have presented results of calculations for several scenarios of modernisation, including the inertial scenario, which maintains the current scheme of transportation of goods. Moreover, we have examined a scenario, involving the construction of the high- speed Northern corridor of the Trans-Asian railway, including the high-speed line Moscow-Kazan-Ekaterinburg-Kazakhstan-Urumqi, as well as a scenario in which the Silk Road passes through Kazakhstan. The simulations have shown that creation of a high-speed highway from Vladivostok to the Russian Western border is the most favourable scenario for implementing Russia’s transit opportunities and accelerating its economic growth. The simulations’ results can be used for assessing the effectiveness of infrastructure projects aimed at modernisation of the Russian transport network.
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The article considers the problems of improving the economic system and shaping the relevant rules and norms of economic activities in the context of the institutionalism’s growing importance. We analyse the possibility to use the «agreement theory» and «philosophy of co-operation» for explaining the essence of economic policy as a whole, regional policy of the state and economic policy of the regions (constituent entities of the Russian Federation). In the institutional approach, the key role belongs to the coordination of interests that is both an objective law of public development and the way to overcome critical situations. We characterise subsystems of the «agreement theory», including an exchange of commodities, production and technologies, traditional economic activities, ecology, civil society, public opinion, creative activities. The obtained «matrix of understanding» might be used as a «roadmap» of the economic policy at all levels (state, region, company) taking into account an obligatory adjustment for the specificity of the national economy and its spatial arrangement. We have underlined that the general theoretical concepts of economic policy can not be applied to the regional policy. The whole (national economy) cannot be reduced to the sum of the parts (regional economies), thus, many macroeconomic processes and events are not traced in its individual components. In the regional development, the institution of economic federalism plays the key role. We have defined the spheres of the regions’ economic activities, where regional efforts can lead to the positive result. Such spheres include property relations, rational nature management, price policy, fiscal and credit-and-monetary spheres, regulatory actions of the relations between the state and regional authorities, and interregional integration.
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Localization is regarded as a milestone of economic and social development at national and regional levels since it may contribute to the growth of production capacity. Following the potential of localization, governments of various mining countries resort to such strategic solution aiming to boost the growth of remoted areas such as the Arctic region. However, the implementation of localization strategies, assessment methodology and intermediate consequences vary significantly. Thus, the theoretical underpinnings of localization regarding generation of ripple effects and analysis of current implications are essential are the basis of our research question. Norwegian localization experience is considered as the most successful, while Russian at-tempts to create local content in the Arctic are frequently criticized. Therefore, we focused on the comparative analysis of Norwegian and Russian localization experience. The study comprises examination of both national and regional levels aiming to reveal key components of success and potential burdens. On national level, the research addresses macroeconomic Input-Output model focused on assessing the cumulative im-pact and potential of mining industry. On regional level, we conducted analysis of the key socio-economic indicators affected mostly by mining activities as well as their localization. In this regard, we used available statistical microdata. Given the results, the success of localization in remoted regions is determined by intensification of inter-regional links and implementation of the governmental approach towards mining projects focusing on upstream and downstream industries. At the same time, narrow governmental regulation leads to leakage of potential benefits. The research results may contribute to increase of knowledge on localization and ripple effects dynamic. Moreover, they may be considered while developing localization solutions for the Arctic projects.
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The article develops the methodological approach to coordinating the priorities of scientific , technologica l an d spatial development of regions. The relevance of the study is due to the significance of choosing the benchmarks for the transformation of regional economic systems. These systems are based on the principles of harmonisation of the social and economic interests of individuals, business entities, territories of different levels, and modern prospects for the development of science and technology. The study aims to substantiate the methodology for assessing and selecting priorities for coordinating scientific, technological and spatial development of the economies of industrialised regions. The methodology is based on a combination of the individual territories’ interests due to their joint participation in integrated investment projects of interregional significance. We applied general scientific methods of theoretical and empirical knowledge, including a causal method, a method of analysis and synthesis, a method of scientific abstraction. We substantiated the role of macro-regions in the process of integration of the local territories’ initiatives with the national development guidelines. Then, we identified the characteristics of integrated investment projects with significant potential, which can be the basis for determining the criteria for assessing and selecting projects and project initiatives proposed for implementation at the supra-regional level. Further, we offered an algorithm for developing an integrated investment project that determines the sequence of events. Such events allow realisation of opportunities of scientific and technological development available for industrialised regions, taking into account the priorities of their spatial transformations. We tested the algorithm using the industrial Ural-Siberian macro-region as an example, identifying key aspects of the “Ural Highway” pilot project. A specific feature of the developed approach is the proposal of a “bipolar” system for determining priorities. It allows integration of the national guidelines for scientific, technological and spatial development with the prospects for transformation defined by individual territories (industrialised regions). Th e propose d approac h ca n b e use d t o substantiat e proposal s and strategic measures aimed at implementing the priorities of spatial development and the development of science and technology in industrialised regions.
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The article substantiates the importance of industrial policy as one of the basic institutions shaping the institutional environment of any country. We demonstrated that institutional factors for accelerating the processes of social and economic development are more important for the Russian economy than for the world economy. We revealed institutional innovations in scientific support of implementing industrial policy priorities. In modern conditions, the basic institution of development is fundamental science. From these positions we analysed institutional innovations in the field of fundamental science. Then we described the innovations that allow industrial policy’s tools to maintain the direction of development. This direction is defined and shaped not only by «big challenges», but public needs, too. The analysis demonstrated that nowadays industrial policies around the world aim to support the development of digital technologies. We considered the stages of the digital economy’s development. Then, we hypothesised that a particularly important consequence of digital transformation is the formation of the prerequisites for changing the entire system of social relations defining the state’s institutional framework and industrial policy’s economic content. We emphasised that the development of the sharing economy (as one of the new trends in the world economic development) will significantly influence the change of industrial policy’s priorities and tools. The analysis of the use of the industrial policy’s tools in Russia showed the effectiveness of using the Industrial Development Fund (IDF). Furthermore, we structured the expected conceptual changes of the terms for concluding Special Investment Contracts (SIC). The analysis of the distribution of loans from IDF and SIC revealed a large discrepancy between the activities of the regions in obtaining the aforementioned loans. We noted there is a high probability of unpredictable consequences of digital technologies not only in the economic development of society, but also in the possible transformation of the universal «lifeworld». Finally, we emphasised that in the context of the digital state’s formation, the search for a balance between technological and moral and ethical aspects in the processes of implementing industrial policy becomes urgent.
REGIONAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
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Digitalization is one of the key world economic trends. Countries with the wealthiest economies have integrated the digitalization program into their economic development plans. At the same time, monitoring of the digitalization’s dynamics and degree of impact on welfare is of great importance for all countries of the global community. Nowadays, there are practically no integrated studies assessing institutional, cultural, economic, educational and infrastructural consequences of the digitalization. This article assesses how the digitalization affect s the mentioned driver s o f social an d economic development . Moreover , it examines the digitalization’s impact on welfare of the developed and developing countries. The relevance of defining the effects of digitalization’s rapid implementation in various countries determined the study’s purpose. We based the methodology on building the balanced panel regression. The key metric for measuring the digitalization is the Digital Evolution Index of 50 countries for 2008, 2013 and 2017. The research findings have confirmed positive impact of the digitalization in the developed countries due to a high levels of digital inclusivity, public and private investment, and digital literacy and trust. At the same time, in the developing countries the digitalization’s impact on welfare was not confirmed due to a low level of state involvement in digitalization development and rigid, non-flexible institutional environment. The obtained empirical results can be used for forming management tools of the digitalization strategy for regions with various levels of social, economic, institutional and digital environment development.
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Author T. B. Melnikova,Modern technologies shape new mechanisms for accumulation and redistribution of capital, increasing the importance of an individual as an economic agent in the processes of integration. Moreover, they create conditions for moving beyond the “centre-periphery” system in the differentiation of the integration processes. Considering the stated assumptions, I propose a new structure of the model of the Russian regions’ economic integration and develop its performance criteria. The article is based on the methodology of the new theory of economic systems, empirical and statistical research methods. For testing, I used the data of the Central Bank of Russian Federation, the SPARK Information Resource, Federal State Statistics Service, and portals of social media analytics. The proposed model includes object, spatial, process and project economic integrations. The key objects of the economic integration are the individual and the community. Economic integration is impossible without the spatial integration that includes urban and virtual space. Project economic integration is based on assessing the dynamics of the resources’ accumulation by the population and communities. The target level of the region’s participation in the economic integration is efficient, if each of the performance criteria does not exceed 20%. The model’s testing allowed structuring the Russian regions by the level of the economic integration’s performance. Spatial economic integration was identified as one of the least problematic subsystems for all regions. Most of the Russian regions are characterised by the underperformance of the process economic integration, manifested either in the low efficiency of the internal federal labour migration, or in the local population’s integration inactivity. One third of the regions is influenced by inter-federal integration processes. The results of the project economic integration indicate two large groups of the Russian regions. One group achieved the performance criterion, while the other is characterised by the prevalence of the population’s capital accumulation over the organizations’ accumulation.
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The article analyses the urgent problem of assessing the risks of decline in individual’s welfare in a region. The welfare is determined by the level of development of productive forces, the nature of production relations and the level of production of goods and services. We identified the risks that decrease individual’s welfare in a region. We chose the reproduction approach, which combines resource and consumer approaches to welfare, as our theoretical platform for studying the risks of decline in individual’s welfare. This approach is linked with the phases of the reproduction cycle: production, distribution, exchange and consumption. The risks may arise in any of these phases. We assessed the risks of decline in individual’s welfare in a region by calculating the integral risk. In 2018, the integral risk in the Ural Federal District corresponded with the zone of middle risk. Our study aims at identifying the risk factors that lead to falling into certain zones of risk. We substantiated the decision to study only two zones of risk: high and critical ones. As a result of the assessment of the probability contribution, we discovered that the indicators “real incomes of the population” and “industrial production index” make the greatest probability contribution to falling into the zones of critical and high risk in all subjects of the Ural Federal District. The findings can be used for developing an effective system of risk management system at the regional level based on formulating the strategies and programs.
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The high level of uncertainty in the Russian pharmaceutical competitive environment creates a necessity of using open data that indicate the degree of the organizations’ technological competencies. The Analysis of the information on the organizations’ localization in the regions allows generating a regional competence profile, which can be used to plan the drugs’ production. The study aims to analyse the distribution of technological competencies in the Russian regions by assessing the prospects for locating production sites of foreign and Russian organizations specialising in the antidiabetic drugs development. We hypothesise that the analysis of the distribution of technological competencies in the regions reduces the market’s uncertainty for deciding on the localization of the socially significant industries. The research model is based on the methods of average-weighted, ranking and categorical analysis of the patent and registration data for shaping the regional competence profiles. The implementation of this method of analysing the organizations’ technological competencies is showed on the example of 18 regions that have production sites of antidiabetic drugs. We substantiated the allocation of 5 types of regional profiles, characterised by similar opportunities and threats for new participants in the pharmaceutical market. We revealed that the model of the cooperation behaviour should consider the technological profile at the regional level. At the same time, the model of competitive behaviour to a much lesser extent depends on the regional characteristics of localized production. The methods of constructing the region’s patent and product ratings and their categorization (with allocation of typical behaviour models) allow determining the technological opportunities for increasing the availability and quality of the Russian pharmaceutical products. Moreover, such methods allow identifying the prospects for long-term cooperation with technological leaders at the regional and industrial levels. That is especially important for implementing the concept of the national drug safety and increasing the availability of the socially significant drugs.
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
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The expansion of applicants’ opportunities for choosing a university, unfortunately, did not completely eliminate the spatial factor in the process of selecting an educational institution. The majority of students are still graduates of local schools. The conducted analysis allows considering university as an element of the implementation of the strategic goal aimed at preserving and attracting human resources, as well as accumulating human capital. Thereby, it confirms that universities play an important role in the region’s socio-economic development by preserving and attracting youth of youth. For analysing the demographic consequences of the spatial polarization of youth we used the Lexis grid. The curve of the dynamics of the number of cohorts, built on the basis of the grid, revealed the most mobile group among the population aged from 17 to 19. The analysis of the existing Russian and foreign approaches to assessing the university’s role in regional development made possible making an analogy with the law of universal gravitation concerning this study. We proposed a gravity model and tested it at Kazan Federal University, one of ten federal Russian universities. The results of the study allowed assessing the spatial effect of the university on the polarization of youth. In this study, we hypothesised that there is a neighbourhood effect in higher education, namely an educational migration between neighbouring regions with different levels of socio-economic development. We tested this hypothesis in the geographical framework of the Volga Federal District using the official statistics and admission data of Kazan Federal University. The constructed gravity model of the university allowed assessing the scale and strength of this influence on attracting applicants from neighbouring subjects. Moreover, it allowed determining the regions of potential growth of influence. Such regions include the Republic of Chuvashia, the Orenburg Region and the Republic of Bashkortostan due to demographic conditions, logistics and the positioning of Kazan Federal University in the Volga Federal District.
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The article describes the results of the study of the certain factors influencing the development of small business in the Russian regions. We focused on assessing the influence of the demographic factor, namely the number of youth. This topic is relevant due to the outflow of youth from the majority of regions and the implementation of the national project for the development of business. We hypothesise there is a positive relation between the number of youth in a region and the number of small businesses there. Further, to prove our hypothesis, we aimed to confirm the interaction of two processes. Firstly, the support of youth’s entrepreneurial initiatives reduces the migration mood. Secondly, the preservation of youth in a region stimulates the development of small businesses by enforcing the performance indicators of the national project. This hypothesis has not previously been tested in Russian academic papers. Using foreign and Russian studies on the problem of development factors, we divided them into three nominal groups: «classification», «single-factor» and «model». Constructing the model, we chose a combination of individual exogenous factors of small business’ development in the regions: geographical, infrastructure, and financial ones. Moreover, based on the eclectic theory of entrepreneurship, we studied some supply factors: education, unemployment, and demography. We considered the population aged from 20 to 34 as an actualized demographic factor. The dependent variables were the number of small and micro businesses, the number of individual entrepreneurs, and the number of small businesses (as the sum of the first two indicators). We built separate models for each indicator. The first two models have identified the stability and confirmed the unidirectional results. Additionally, we introduced in the models a contextual factor, namely the crises of 2008–2009 and 2014. The econometric assessment has shown that the number of youth positively influences the growth of small businesses and individual entrepreneurship in regions. The indicator is significant at the level of 1%, it is stable and obvious for all model specifications.
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The article assesses the economic consequences of rising mortality of the population suffering with cardiovascular, coronary and respiratory diseases in the Russian cities with extreme temperatures for the period from 1997 to 2017. The data on the temperature on the earth’s surface was collected daily from 1121 weather stations located in the cities with a population over 50,000 people. During the considered period, the number of extremely hot days has increased in 6 regions of the Russian Federation. Moreover, a steady trend towards climate warming has been revealed in 7 Northern regions. On average, in the span of 21 years, Russia had 21 days with extreme temperatures per year. For assessing the effect of extreme temperatures on mortality of the working-age population with selected groups of diseases, we used a panel data model with fixed effects. We have discovered that mortality statistically significantly depends on both low and high temperatures. However, high temperatures impact mortality more than cold temperatures. We have assessed economic losses from mortality of the working-age population as the sum of the regional products’ indicators for the considered period, weighted by the rate of labour force participation and the average number of deaths in the selected population groups. According to average assessments, in the period from 2000 to 2016, for 82 subjects of the Russian Federation the losses amounted to 0.6 % — 0.7 % of Gross Regional Product (GRP) annually. The obtained quantitative assessments can be used in designing the regional development strategies and concepts of smart cities in order to improve the quality of life of citizens.
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A high level of the economic potential’s heterogeneity, precarious climatic conditions led to the distortion of the life’s quality and depopulation of many local territories of Krasnoyarsk Krai and other Russian regions. The spatial disproportion of the labour forces hinders national plans for harnessing the unique potential of Eastern Siberia and Arctic. The accuracy and efficiency of the regional economy’s regulation is ensured by the sufficient and coherent local analytical data about the balance of the labour forces’ demand and supply. However, assessment of the balance of the municipalities’ labour forces remains an open research question. This is due to the advantages of two-level spatial planning, insufficient connection between municipal and regional strategic decisions, limited municipal statistics. We assessed the balance of the municipality’s labour forces in order to theoretically substantiate and develop the indicative model for assessing the balance indicators of the labour forces in terms of the local territories. We formed the concept of the indicative balance model considering the specific features of the territories’ social and economic conditions. Moreover, we substantiated a methodology for assessing the balance indicators of the municipalities’ labour forces. Additionally, we developed a mathematical model of the indicative assessment of such forces, demonstrated an analytical database of the assessment data, and a software package for its calculation. We tested the model and calculated the balance of the labour forces for 61 municipalities of Krasnoyarsk Krai. We assessed the force indicators using three standard all-regional coefficients: coefficient of the working population of working age; coefficient of the foreign working migrants; coefficient of the population above working age and teenagers, employed in the economy. We calculated the differentiation of all-regional values by considering the specific rates, such as dependency ratio coefficien t, employabili ty coefficients, coeffcients of the manufacturing development. The model’s testing allowed us to draw conclusions on the dynamics of demands and the achieved potential of the municipal labour forces’ development. Furthermore, we have discovered the growth zones and critical points of decline. The model can be used for shaping the strategies at the municipal, regional and macro-regional levels.
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In the contemporary world, the anthropogenic effect is increasing. At the same time, the quality of life of the population is strongly associated with the environmental quality, as there is growing understanding that rising economic income does not ensure the humanity’s well-being. In this regard, issues connected with analysing the influence of the anthropogenic factor on changes in the quality of the life of the population become relevant. We believe that existing approaches to assessing the quality of life poorly reflect the current situation related to the speed of the environmental changes due to an increase in the scale and intensity of its pollution. Therefore, for assessing the quality of life, we suggest taking into account the environmental and energy components of the anthropogenic factor. To this end, the classification of anthropogenic factors is supplemented by the “industrial production” group, distinguished by the “source of impact” indicator, which allows analysing the group’s influence on changing parameters of the quality of life of the population. The methodological basis of the study is a comprehensive approach to assessing the quality of life. Based on it, we structured the stages of the evolution of approaches to measuring and assessing the quality of life of the population. Moreover, we described key features of these approaches, and identified the fourth stage that substantiates the priority of environmental and energy criteria in assessing the quality of life. We propose to improve the methodology for assessing the quality of life of the population by introducing additional environmental and energy characteristics. The article presents the results of using this improved methodology. We tested it on the examples of the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions. The obtained values of the integral indicators of the quality of life of the population show that the Sverdlovsk region has lower index values. That happened due to a more developed industrial sector and, as a result, the more deteriorated environmental situation. The proposed methodology for assessing the quality of life of the population can be used by regional leaders for making decisions related to the regional development aimed at improving the quality of life of the population.
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Russian economy is characterised by lower labour productivity compared to many developing countries. This circumstance caused the appearance of various orders in presidential “May decrees”, including the orders to create 25 million high-performance workplaces (HPW), and increase labour productivity by 1.5 times. Moreover, these decrees led to the creation and implementation of the national project “Labour productivity and support of employment”. Scientists actively discuss what should be considered as a criterion for the HPW: labour productivity or wages. The latter criterion is an indicator of the HPW that the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) uses for counting their number. The article analyses the results of studies in academia and approaches to the assessment and identification of high-performance workplaces. This study is based on Rosstat’s open data on the number of HPW in Altai Krai, Siberian Federal District, and in the country. These data were processed, graphically presented and analysed in dynamics and by factors. Further, we showed the dynamics of the growth of the number of HPW, correlation between the changes in this number and changes in the labour productivity index, the subsistence level of the working age population, the size of the average monthly wage. Additionally, we analysed the structure of the HPW from the standpoint of types of economic activity. One of the main conclusions is the imperfection of Rosstat approaches to identifying HPW. We have shown that the use of obviously imperfect methods distorts the initial idea of their creation as a driver of economic development, thereby directing the regulator towards erroneous management of such processes. The findings substantiate the need for continuous updating and improving the competencies of highly educated personnel, and creating comfortable working conditions for employees (including sanitary, psychological, social, material ones).
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Russia ranks third in the world after the United States of America and Germany by the number of migrants. Migrants bring health risks for the population of host territories. Combined with social factors, this fact differently impacts the indicators of public health. The paper aims to assess the possible impact of various aspects of the internal and external migration in the Russian regions on the prevalence of the socially dangerous diseases: HIV, active tuberculosis, syphilis, drug addiction, acute and chronic viral hepatitis B and C. Correlation and econometric analysis are the main research methods. The main research methods we use are correlation and econometric analysis. We constructed panel models for each of the considered diseases. The models test various socio-economic indicators (including money income, housing improvements, population’s education level, and the incidence of alcoholism), as well as climatic, geographical and demographic indicators. Moreover, we tested various indicators characterizing labour immigration, migrants’ inflow to the region from other countries and other regions, and a share of people born outside the region in resident population. Additionally, we considered the impact of morbidity rate and proximity of some countries’ borders. We tried to track the changes of the factors influencing spread of diseases as time passes. As a result, we established a positive significant statistical correlation of the following indicators of migration and incidence: 1) employment of foreign citizens and incidence of syphilis in 2005; 2) share of internal migrants in the population and incidence of drug addiction in 2005; 3) employment of foreign citizens and incidence of drug addiction in the period from 2006 to 2016; 4) inflow of foreign citizens and detection of chronic viral hepatitis in 2010; 5) inflow of foreigners and incidence of acute viral hepatitis C in the period from 2011 to 2016. The obtained results can be useful for experts and researchers interested in the issues of regulating and optimising the region’s socio-economic policy and medical and demographic processes.
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The establishment of the digital economy leads to significant changes in the relations in the sphere of material and immaterial production. A significant spatial differentiation, caused by the features of the implemented technological solutions, is observed in the field of digital services. This differentiation greatly impacts the material production’s development. A growing need to use the digital information technologies is transforming the basis of economic development. We hypothesise that the efficiency of production relations is determined not only by known factors, but alsoby the spatial features of the digital economy’s establishment. The study aims to identify the main characteristics, specific features and trends of production relations in the digital economy in the Russian Federation. For various purposes, we used different research methods. Firstly, we applied retrospective analysis for identifying trends in the development of production relations. Secondly, we conducted cluster and factor analysis for classifying the entities of the Russian Federation in accordance with the level of the digital economy’s development. Thirdly, we used quantitative and comparative assessments for analysing the efficiency of production relations’ formation in the entities of the Russian Federation in the context of the digital economy. The empirical basis was data from the Federal State Statistics Service and various rating and analytical agencies, which characterise the development of the digital economy. In the study, we determined the features of the organisation of production relations in the context of the digital economy’s establishment. Information production is the most dynamically developing sphere of the Russian economic activity. At the same time, the growth rate of the market of the digital services’ producers exceeds the growth rates of the markets of consumers and digital services intermediaries in the Russian regions. We revealed that information production mostly concentrates in a limited number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, including Moscow and the Moscow Region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region. In this regard, it is necessary to establish an information and economic space in the entities of the Russian Federation to provide enterprises with access to digital products, services, and efficient development in the digital economy. Significant spatial differentiation in the level of the digital economy’s development in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (in the context of the market of intermediaries and consumers) greatly impacts production development. Additionally, it determines the existence of spatial imbalances in the development of the digital economy. The centres for the development of information production are significantly removed from the centres of industrial and agricultural production. Moreover, a large part of the population lives in entities with an average or low level of development of the digital economy. Information production was originally formed as an infrastructure sector of the economy in general and the sphere of material production in particular. Today it is becoming a separate significant element of the economy, while simultaneously performing infrastructure functions. The results of the study allow objective assessments of the features and trends of the formation of production relations in the context of the digital economy in the Russian Federation. The obtained conclusions can be used in the development and implementation of spatial development strategies of the Russian Federation in the context of the digital economy. In addition, the findings can be used by specialists and experts in conducting their own research.
INDUSTRY AND INTER-INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS
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The creation and implementation of the strategies for economic and social development in the Russian regions for the period up to 2035 implies an adequate development of transport services affecting all economic sectors and segments of the population. In this regard, we propose a model connecting the characteristics of passenger and cargo flows with the parameters of economic and social development, as well as with the region’s demography. This model allows specifying the congestion of the transport system resulting from the implementation of plans for social and economic development and planned decisions in the sphere of economic activity. For developing the model, we selected parameters describing the economic situation, labour market, demography, living standards and social situation in the analysed subject. These parameters have the highest correlation coefficients with the analysed characteristics of the transport infrastructure. Further, we conducted a step-by-step regression analysis, adding to the already existing variables new ones that gave the greatest increase in the determinacy coefficient R2. The model shows that the main factor determining the amount of passengers transported by public buses is the annual average number of employed persons. The passenger turnover is mostly affected by the population size. The volume of goods transported by trucks is determined by parameters characterising the level of the production development (investments in fixed assets, fixed capital in the economy, and the volume of shipped goods of domestic production). The use of nonlinear models and networks did not significantly reduce the model’s errors. Additionally, we clustered the Russian regions by indicators of socio-economic development and the characteristics of transport infrastructure affecting traffic flows. Then we assessed the efficiency of transport infrastructure’s exploitation in various clusters. This allows the targeted benchmarking, namely the selection of regions mostly appropriate for comparison with the analysed one.
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The importance of considering mining wastes (MW) as a factor of increasing the balance level of subsoil management in regions is growing. Firstly, it happens because of the gradual exhaustion of mineral deposits. Secondly, the formation of significant volumes of mining wastes (regularly generated and already accumulated over a sufficientl y lon g perio d o f time ) represents a unique reserve of minerals. These trends are accompanied by the lack of effective waste management programs built on a fundamental theoretical and methodological basis for assessing mining wastes in terms of the balanced subsoil management. One of the key steps is the development of tools for assessing the balance level of subsoil management taking into account MW. An analysis of the domestic and foreign research revealed the lack of works directly related to the development of such methodological approaches. We hypothesise that there is a direct correlation between the creation and use of the fundamental theoretical and methodological basis for assessing MW from the standpoint of the balanced subsoil management (including the methodological tools for assessing the balance level of subsoil management considering MW as a managing tool) and the efficiency of the policy regulating subsoil use and regional waste management. The study’s key result is the creation of the the improved tools for assessing the balance level of subsoil management taking into account MW. We have proven that application of these improved tools for subsoil management increases its efficiency through constant monitoring of the dynamics of the key indicators of the balanced subsoil management. We tested the improved methodological tools for assessing the balance level of subsoil management taking into account MW on the example of the Sverdlovsk Region. The results have demonstrated the indicator of 52.62 %. Nevertheless, consideration of mining wastes positively affects the level of subsoil management. That result indicates the importance of considering MW as a source of reproduction of the region’s mineral resources base.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
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Author O. Baris-Tuzemen,Knowing the possible presence of a long-term connection between exports and imports is important both for current and future macroeconomic policies and for the sustainability of the current account deficit. The existence of a long-term relationship between variables of interest implies that the countries are not in violation of their budget constraints. Moreover, it means that their macro policies are effective. In this context, this paper aims to investigate whether the long-term equilibrium relationship between exports and imports in the emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLEs) is symmetric or asymmetric. The EAGLE is an acronym introduced by the Spanish bank BBVA in 2010. The members of the EAGLEs are Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea, Russia, Taiwan, and Turkey. The annual dataset covers the period from 1960 to 2017. For further comparison, on the one hand, I employed autoregressive distributed lag bound test (ARDL) for analysing symmetric long-term relation among the variables. On the other hand, asymmetric long run convergence is examined via nonlinear ARDL method. According to the results of the linear ARDL test, there exists a strong cointegration association between exports and imports for 3 out of 10 countries. However, the evidence from nonlinear ARDL test shows that the null hypothesis stating the lack of cointegration can be rejected for 8 out of 10 countries. The existence of the cointegration link amongst the series indicates that the trade imbalances are short-term phenomenon and are sustainable in the long-term. In other words, these countries are not in violation of their intertemporal budget constraint.
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The study aims to identify and analyse the dynamics of “propulsive industries”, considered as drivers of economic growth and stabilizers of economic security of the regions of Russia’s Western borderland in the period of geopolitical turbulence (2013–2018). We are particularly interested in the identification of industries regarded as drivers of regional economic growth during the crisis of the Russia’s economy and its individual regions. The article presents the results of a study, supported by the grant of Russian Science Foundation No. 18–17–00112 «Ensuring the Economic Safety of Russia’s Western Borderlands amid of Geopolitical Turbulence» and by the grant No. 18–310–20016 of Russian Foundation for Basic Research. “Propulsive industries” are characterised by a high level of the adaptation of technologies, and export and innovation potential, which determine the fifth and sixth technological order. The state and dynamics of these industries support region’s economic security and the level of competitiveness, especially under difficult conditions of geopolitical turbulence (2013–2018). We conducted analysis based on data on net value added, produced by the main types of economic activity. Then, we assessed value added for enterprises and organisations subject to value added tax in the regions of Russia’s Western borderland. Thus, the study is based on tax statistics provided in the reports of the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation. We selected and substantiated some types of activity as the “propulsion industries” that determine the economic security, and region’s export and innovation potential. They include “production of medicines and materials used for medical purposes”, “production of computers, electronic and optical products”, “production of aircrafts, including spacecraft, and related equipment”, “information and communication activities” and “professional, scientific and technical activities”. Th e study’ s statistica l an d quantitativ e bas e i s buil t o n dat a o n value added tax (VAT). Based on these data, we calculated the net value added for the main types of economic activity produced by enterprises and organisations subject to VAT. The study has shown that the industry «Production of computers, electronic and optical products» is propulsive for the majority of the regions of Western borderland. The research results will be reflected in the implementation of our team’s fundamental developments, including the projects of Russian Science Foundation and Russian Foundation for Basic Research.
AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD MARKET: NEW VECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT
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Import substitution is a top priority of Russia’s economic policy in recent years. Complex geopolitical conditions, Western sanctions and consequent Russian countermeasures necessitated urgent compensation for the reduced volume of imported goods through increasing domestic production. Despite a significant rise in the number of publications on the problems of import substitution policy, the issues of assessing the efficiency of the ongoing policy are yet to be studied. The analysis of the existing methods for quantitative assessment of import substitution revealed their focus on assessing the potential or expediency of substituting imported products with domestically produced goods. Further, such analysis showed poor applicability of these methods when monitoring the results of the current policy. Thus, we developed a system for assessing the efficiency and monitoring the results of import substitution policy as a component of structural policy aimed at the modernisation of the Russian industries and manufacture of competitive products. The obtained results have demonstrated that, during the study period, the potential of the Russian agriculture was increasing due to a reduced import and accelerated growth of investments in fixed capital, in reconstruction and modernization. The detected rise in innovation potential of agriculture is largely attributable to low base effect. At the same time, the efficiency of using the potential of structural and technological modernisation in agriculture demonstrates a clear trend. However, intensive growth in the potential of import substitution modernisation in agriculture in subsequent periods may provide higher growth rates of modernisation targets. The proposed approach allows identifying the cause and effect relationship between ongoing processes and forecasting the dynamics of the industry development. The obtained method can be used to substantiate decisions related to the development of import substitution projects.
INNOVATIVE CAPACITY OF A REGION
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Competitive relations’ modification, digital space’s development, markets’ over-fragmentation, technological and economic convergences, complexity of search for market niches cause an increase in the volume and depth of interactions with representatives of the innovative environment for maintaining and strengthening the positions of market leaders. Primarily, this problem concerns high-tech companies, because they shape new markets and create products, satisfying latent needs. Increase in the volume of contacts arising from the establishment of the innovative production creates a problem of optimising business interactions as a condition for increasing the business’ efficiency. For solving this problem, the article summarises the theoretical and methodological aspects of shaping the effective portfolio of interactions between high-tech sector and entities of the innovative environment. Based on the regression analysis, we proved the low efficiency of Russian innovations in forming the opportunities for conquering world markets. We analysed the performance indicators of state programs and strategies. The analysis demonstrated a low level of the innovation leadership of Russian high-tech sector. Thus, it confirmed the hypothesis about the necessity of rationalising relationships and using substantiating models of cooperation between high-tech sector and entities of the innovative environment. We suggested a toolkit for assessing the enterprises’ efficiency and their dependence on the entities of the innovative environment. The toolkit is based on expert measurements using quantitative linguistic scales. We developed these scales as they simplify the procedure of identifying the mutual compliance, interest, satisfaction with the cooperation between high-tech companies and representatives of the innovative environment. Using the obtained methodology, we proposed the optimal structure of the four identified models of interaction between high-tech companies and the innovative environment. The models were named by analogy with the styles of modern dance (hustle, contemporary, lindy hop, zouk). The further research can focus on assessing sustainability and determining the life cycle of cooperation with entities of the innovative environment.
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We consider differentiation of innovative development strategy as a condition for successful regional development. The relevance of the differentiation of regional innovation strategies is determined by inefficiency of the current strategies. This inefficiency manifest s itself in the unificati on of region al policies, isolation of innovative development from the territories’ socio-economic potential, deformation of mechanism regulating industrial proportions of the country’s economy, in particular, imbalances in favour of supporting resource-based industries. The study aims to develop methodological approaches to the establishment of effective innovative strategies for different types of regions considering their relevant socio-economic needs and existing scientific, technological, productive and human capacities. Based on the analysis of Russian and international experience, we have proven that such factors as region’s research and production specialisation, its position in the “centreperiphery” system, and the existence and the structure of demand for innovation greatly influence the success of innovative strategies. Due to a high differentiation of the Russian regions for production specialisation, we paid special attention to the impact of the territory’s production and technology type on the choice of optimal paths for establishing an innovation system. We identified and substantiated the main elements of the innovative strategy in relation to the Russian regions with a large concentration of high-tech industries (mission, key elements of the innovative system, priority areas of the State support, expected results). We have formulated the specific characteristics of the author’s method of selecting priorities for region’s innovative development. It is based on the assessment and comparison of the development levels of scientific, technological and innovative capacities of the Russian regions and their production and technology type, taking into account the spatial differentiation of various types of industries. The article is addressed to professionals in the sphere of the theory and practice of managing region’s innovative development.