To formalise the assessment of risks to the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence presents a relevant issue. This study aims to define the economic security in the structure of the system of the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence and to develop a classifier of risks. We consider the economic security as one of the needs for meeting which the welfare aims. The risk assessment includes three stages. At the first stage, we calculate the welfare of individuals and the territory. At the second stage, the authors determine the coefficient of variation to select indicators that will characterize the risks to the welfare. The third stage assumes the assessment of these risks, which reduce the welfare. The regional economic system is considered as a multidimensional stochastic system, which can be modelled as a vector random variable. The components of this variable generally are mutually correlated. The formalization of the assessment of risks to the welfare is based on this interpretation of the regional economic system. As a result, the authors highlighted the main threats to the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence. We have selected risk factors with high coefficient of variation, which indicates that the selected indicators have a high degree of variability. The research evaluates risks to the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence assessing the probability of the occurrence of crisis states for the regions of the Ural Federal District. The probabilities of the states pre-crisis 1 and pre-crisis 2 for all these regions are sufficiently high. It can indicate that the general social and economic state in the regions of the Ural Federal District is unstable. The findings can be used to develop an effective risk management system at the regional level.

The article analyses the urgent problem of assessing the risks of decline in individual’s welfare in a region. The welfare is determined by the level of development of productive forces, the nature of production relations and the level of production of goods and services. We identified the risks that decrease individual’s welfare in a region. We chose the reproduction approach, which combines resource and consumer approaches to welfare, as our theoretical platform for studying the risks of decline in individual’s welfare. This approach is linked with the phases of the reproduction cycle: production, distribution, exchange and consumption. The risks may arise in any of these phases. We assessed the risks of decline in individual’s welfare in a region by calculating the integral risk. In 2018, the integral risk in the Ural Federal District corresponded with the zone of middle risk. Our study aims at identifying the risk factors that lead to falling into certain zones of risk. We substantiated the decision to study only two zones of risk: high and critical ones. As a result of the assessment of the probability contribution, we discovered that the indicators “real incomes of the population” and “industrial production index” make the greatest probability contribution to falling into the zones of critical and high risk in all subjects of the Ural Federal District. The findings can be used for developing an effective system of risk management system at the regional level based on formulating the strategies and programs.