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Author's articles (2)
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#1 / 2018 Category: SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTThe period, when a person starts and completes his or her professional carrier and labour participation, in general, coincides with the age when the self-preservation behaviour develops. It is a time when a person aims for a healthy and safe lifestyle. During this period, an individual assumes the main standards, values of the self-preservation behaviour inherent in an ethnic, social and cultural macro-environment. To research the sociocultural factors of survival, we applied econometric modelling to demographic processes using the discrete and probabilistic indicators of the mortality tables of male and female in economically active age. The econometric model included the elements of spatiotemporal characteristics of territories. These characteristics are interrelated with the indicators of survival probability and the indicator of average life expectancy in the regions of Russia. We choose the major sociocultural factors by the correlation ratio of indicators and their sensitivity. The econometric analysis has revealed a high degree of sensitivity of a territorial variation of demographic and sociocultural factors in the regions of Russia, including a gender aspect. The most significant socio-economic factors, which determine the self-preservation behaviour of males, are the following: 1) the size of Gross Regional Product per capita; 2) quality of health infrastructure; 3) fixed investments; 4) population with monetary income under the subsistence minimum (share coefficient of income differentials). The female have the same hierarchy of socio-economic factors, except for the sensitivity of variables to the regional differentiation of signs. The household poverty factor has little significance for the women and it is the main difference between male and female. The built model has shown the predictive importance in the assessment of the above-mentioned factors in short and medium-term prospects.
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#4 / 2019 Category: SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTRussia ranks third in the world after the United States of America and Germany by the number of migrants. Migrants bring health risks for the population of host territories. Combined with social factors, this fact differently impacts the indicators of public health. The paper aims to assess the possible impact of various aspects of the internal and external migration in the Russian regions on the prevalence of the socially dangerous diseases: HIV, active tuberculosis, syphilis, drug addiction, acute and chronic viral hepatitis B and C. Correlation and econometric analysis are the main research methods. The main research methods we use are correlation and econometric analysis. We constructed panel models for each of the considered diseases. The models test various socio-economic indicators (including money income, housing improvements, population’s education level, and the incidence of alcoholism), as well as climatic, geographical and demographic indicators. Moreover, we tested various indicators characterizing labour immigration, migrants’ inflow to the region from other countries and other regions, and a share of people born outside the region in resident population. Additionally, we considered the impact of morbidity rate and proximity of some countries’ borders. We tried to track the changes of the factors influencing spread of diseases as time passes. As a result, we established a positive significant statistical correlation of the following indicators of migration and incidence: 1) employment of foreign citizens and incidence of syphilis in 2005; 2) share of internal migrants in the population and incidence of drug addiction in 2005; 3) employment of foreign citizens and incidence of drug addiction in the period from 2006 to 2016; 4) inflow of foreign citizens and detection of chronic viral hepatitis in 2010; 5) inflow of foreigners and incidence of acute viral hepatitis C in the period from 2011 to 2016. The obtained results can be useful for experts and researchers interested in the issues of regulating and optimising the region’s socio-economic policy and medical and demographic processes.