Currently, the socio-economic crisis and tension in external economic environment significantly complicate the task of strategic planning of regional socio-economic development. However, this task is crucially relevant. Its solution requires a multiaspect assessment of regional socio-economic situation. This assessment should take into account the impact of numerous factors, possible “traps”. We propose to use a composite indicator “Index of the welfare of an individual and inhabited area” to assess the socio-economic situation in a region. Using the method of correlation analysis, we selected 6 key indicators: natural population growth rate, mortgage arrears, total unemployment, percentage of the population with incomes below the subsistence level, ratio of budget spending on education to the gross regional product (GRP), ratio of budget spending on healthcare to the gross regional product (GRP). The value domain of each indicator is divided on 7 crisis zones. This allows assessing the socio-economic system situation. We have substantiated the behaviour of regional socio-economic system on the example of the Ural Federal District in the period from 2000 to 2017. Furthermore, we have made projections for the period from 2018 to 2021. The dynamics of four indicators from six demonstrates reveals a post-crisis recovery. However, the direct impact on two budgetary indicators can increase the general welfare in a region. Comparing the dynamics of the index of the welfare of an individual and inhabited area with GRP shows that we can use the index of the welfare of an individual and inhabited area to forecast the dynamics GRP. The research results can be applied for developing measures to enhance the socio-economic development of regions.

The article analyses the urgent problem of assessing the risks of decline in individual’s welfare in a region. The welfare is determined by the level of development of productive forces, the nature of production relations and the level of production of goods and services. We identified the risks that decrease individual’s welfare in a region. We chose the reproduction approach, which combines resource and consumer approaches to welfare, as our theoretical platform for studying the risks of decline in individual’s welfare. This approach is linked with the phases of the reproduction cycle: production, distribution, exchange and consumption. The risks may arise in any of these phases. We assessed the risks of decline in individual’s welfare in a region by calculating the integral risk. In 2018, the integral risk in the Ural Federal District corresponded with the zone of middle risk. Our study aims at identifying the risk factors that lead to falling into certain zones of risk. We substantiated the decision to study only two zones of risk: high and critical ones. As a result of the assessment of the probability contribution, we discovered that the indicators “real incomes of the population” and “industrial production index” make the greatest probability contribution to falling into the zones of critical and high risk in all subjects of the Ural Federal District. The findings can be used for developing an effective system of risk management system at the regional level based on formulating the strategies and programs.