Import substitution is a top priority of Russia’s economic policy in recent years. Complex geopolitical conditions, Western sanctions and consequent Russian countermeasures necessitated urgent compensation for the reduced volume of imported goods through increasing domestic production. Despite a significant rise in the number of publications on the problems of import substitution policy, the issues of assessing the efficiency of the ongoing policy are yet to be studied. The analysis of the existing methods for quantitative assessment of import substitution revealed their focus on assessing the potential or expediency of substituting imported products with domestically produced goods. Further, such analysis showed poor applicability of these methods when monitoring the results of the current policy. Thus, we developed a system for assessing the efficiency and monitoring the results of import substitution policy as a component of structural policy aimed at the modernisation of the Russian industries and manufacture of competitive products. The obtained results have demonstrated that, during the study period, the potential of the Russian agriculture was increasing due to a reduced import and accelerated growth of investments in fixed capital, in reconstruction and modernization. The detected rise in innovation potential of agriculture is largely attributable to low base effect. At the same time, the efficiency of using the potential of structural and technological modernisation in agriculture demonstrates a clear trend. However, intensive growth in the potential of import substitution modernisation in agriculture in subsequent periods may provide higher growth rates of modernisation targets. The proposed approach allows identifying the cause and effect relationship between ongoing processes and forecasting the dynamics of the industry development. The obtained method can be used to substantiate decisions related to the development of import substitution projects.

Due to post-crisis slowdown in globalization, there is a necessity to structurally transform the Russian economy, strengthen the existing strategic partnerships and explore new economic growth points. Thus, the paper substantiates the importance of Russia’s participation in macro-regional economic associations. We examine the problems and risks of partnership development between the countries. Based on a mutual trade significance index, we analyse the importance of trade between the Russian Federation and the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), BRICS (Brazil, India, China and South Africa), and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The analysis shows that the share of Russian trade with the BRICS and SCO countries is growing fastest, largely due to the trade with China. At the same time, for the economic growth of the EAEU member countries, intra-union trade is less beneficial than the development of foreign trade relations. Moreover, recently the EAEU partners of Russia have been more interested in establishing and developing relations with third countries. The EAEU countries face a variety of problems during the integration process, including the fundamental incompatibility of the interests of the participants. Based on the obtained results, we demonstrate the development prospects of cooperation between Russia and various integration associations. The main obstacle for establishing new economic unions is the low competitiveness of the Russian economy. Even though the current situation does not enhance inter-regional cooperation, it provides Russia an opportunity to strengthen cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region and increase its participation in multilateral mechanisms. We conclude that in the medium term EAEU has to focus on strengthening the existing institutions and creating a modern flexible economic partnership.