Arhive: #2 2012
NEW PARADIGMS AND CONCEPTS
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Author Glaz'ev S. Yu.,In this paper, the author uses the basis of generalization of extensive theoretical and empirical material and analyzes the causes of the global economic crisis makes forecasts of its further deployment justifies the proposal for an accelerated modernization and development of the Russian economy on the basis of a new technological system and the early insertion of the Russian economy in the associated new long wave of growth as a key anti-crisis policy direction. The author outlines priority areas of development policy of Russia. The establishment of strategic planning and management through the adoption of the Federal Law «On the strategic planning», which will determine the procedures for the development and status of the planning documents that must be considered when planning the budget, monetary policy and other decision-making, is justified. The paper discusses the necessary and sufficient conditions for macro-economic modernization and sustainable development of the Russian economy.
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This paper shows the changes in theoretical and methodological approaches to the diagnosis of the economic security of the regions that have taken place over the last 20–25 years. This period covers a complex way, which Russia overcame since the beginning of perestroika, when the country faced two crises, surviving changing socio-economic structure and choosing the path of innovative development. The authors suggest that an assessment of the «health» of the regions in terms of economic security and the division into separate spheres is an effective methodological tool that allows not only ascertaining the state, but also looking into the future development. This paper, on the one hand, is a kind of report on the results of the Ural scientific school on the issues of economic security, on the other hand, it demonstrates the authors’ opinion (not always coinciding with other researchers') on this issue.
NATIONAL SECURITY
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This paper is dedicated to the main points of the Energy Security Doctrine of Russia, which (if being adopted) enforces continuity of system of the strategic planning documents designating the development of Russian fuel energy complex. The main threats of energy security to the country and its regions have been appointed; conceptual framework, system of principles, tasks and measures for the energy security have been formed, the energy security monitoring system has been offered.
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This paper reviews the basic problems of economic security in infrastructural ensuring of the implementation of transportation and intermediate carrier potential of Russia: development and reconstruction of communication lines, usage of innovative transportation methods, building a network of transportation and logistics centers, development of regional airport hubs and others. Particular attention is paid to the problems of transportation and transit potential implementation of Siberia and the Far East. It is shown that the increase of transit facilities in the territory of Russia takes place in a competitive market of infrastructure projects. At the same time it is emphasized that along with exhausting the possibilities of commodity economy development, a natural competitive advantage of Russia as a transport bridge between Europe, Asia and America will be implemented in full force.
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Author Lazhentsev V. N.,This paper reviews the following questions of studying of the North with reference to a problematic of national safety of Russia: economic maintenance of geopolitics in the zone of Arctic, optimization of distribution of mineral-raw, fuel and energy resources between the Russian and international markets, expansion of inter-regional technological cooperation, coordination of resourced and innovative strategy with representations about postindustrial economy, achievement of a condition of social well-being. The scientific explanation of the specified objects is aimed at formation of a special kind of state policy, notably — connection of separate parts of the country to the creation of the general bases of safe social and economic development. The economic-geographical analysis has allowed obtaining additional proofs on necessity, firstly, of maintenance of the North as an insurance reserve of a sustainable development of the country and, secondly, eliminating those reasons which could lead to undesirable position of the North as hypothetical destabilizing element of national economy.
PRODUCTION AND FINANCIAL SECURITY
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Author Romanova O. A.,This paper proves that the paradigm of the world of the XXI century is neoindustrialization on the basis of alternative strategic goals of the global economy associated with the formation of post-industrial society and financialization neoindustrialization. A systematic proposal for the driving forces and mechanisms for its implementation is suggested. It is shown that target-oriented approach can be successfully used at the regional level as a mechanism for economic neoindustrialization of an old-industrial region. Conceptual approach to developing comprehensive program of industrial development in the industrial region that implements the ideas of neoindustrialization in relation to industry of Sverdlovsk region is presented. It was found that the regional technology platform can be an effective tool for combining the interests of territorial and sectoral development. It is proved that the idea of neoindustrialization can be realized only as a result of wise industrial policy and road map formation for the movement to an entirely new high-tech based industrial development. In the process of forming, the problem of neoindustrialization of a «pure» market as a factor in increasing the economic security is actualized.
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This paper describes a software package for calculation the condition of the territories of Russia on energy security, developed by the authors. The basis of the software is built on the methods of calculation of energy security, developed by a team of the Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg. The paper presents the features of the basic principles of construction and operation of the program, its main parts are highlighted, the obtained results and the options presented to the user are shown. On the basis of calculation data, the analysis of the state of the energy security of all territories of Russia was produced. The impact of threats to energy security in the territory of the state was evaluated, the dynamics of changes was revealed, bottlenecks in the functioning of the fuel and energy complex of Russia were identified. The usage of the obtained results will allow governments to pursue a more balanced policy in improving the energy sector in a region.
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This paper considers an essential element of economic security in today's terms — financial security, the essence of which lies in the formation of stable cash flows, providing the ability to develop regional systems, mainly due to their own economic and financial resources. The place and importance of regional governance arrangements of financial resources, the formation of their sources is shown. The structure of the consolidated fiscal balance area as the main tool of analysis of all traffic of financial resources generated and distributed in the region is revealed. Expediency of reproduction approach to the evaluation of financial flows of the territories is substantiated. Internal financial and economic resources of the region are disclosed. The main methods of classification of regions on the structure of financial sources for development are shown. The proposals to strengthen the financial capacity of the territories are formulated.
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Author Golova I. M.,In this paper, actual problems of innovative-technological image as a key element of the mechanism of the healing sources of socioeconomic development of the Russian regionsare considered. The author gives an assessment of the level of differentiation of subjects of the Russian Federation on the potential for innovative development. Trends in spatial transformations of the scientific and technical and innovation capacities of the country are analyzedand reasons of low innovational activity of Russian enterprises are disclosed. Basic conditions for the success of actions to create an attractive image of innovative-technological territory are formulated. Special attention is paid to the position of regions as participants in the innovational processes, creating preconditions for creativity, harmonization of spatial priorities of innovation, technological and socio-economic development, support for the development of new high-tech industries, improvement of inter-budgetary relations. There are proved priority areas of state policy to reduce barriers to the realization of an innovative paradigm for development of Russian society and effective inclusion of local communities in the implementation of innovative changes.
RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY
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Author Doroshenko S. V.,This paper develops ideas about the environmental performance assessment in the federal districts and subjects of the Russian Federation. Relevance of the topic is determined by the need to build a new system of environmental relations in terms of current society modernization, transition to the economy on an innovative type of development. The research methodology is based on the ongoing situation in Russia, the administrative reform, involving the compulsory institutionalization of evaluation of socio-economic impact of the government. The foreign practice of estimating the state environmental monitoring and inspection activities is analyzed. The characteristic of the current national system of assessment and the directions of its development is given. Amendments to the existing system of indicators to measure compliance and enforcement of territorial bodies of the Federal Service for Supervision of Natural Resources are proposed. The results of testing of the proposed system of indicators for the departments of the federal districts of Federal Service for Supervision of Natural Resource Usage are described.
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This paper presents an algorithm for determination of area affected by a major discharge of soluble toxic substances to surface water, and sets the problems that must be solved for correct evaluation — within this algorithm — of inclusion of particular areas of the surface water body into the affected area.
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Author Shvets S. M.,This paper analyzes investment and innovative model of development of the mineral resources sector in Russia. It is proved that the emphasis in today's economy is made on the development of both raw materials industries, most of which are associated with the extraction and primary processing of renewable natural resources, and processing industries, which leads to an increase in national wealth. The formation of the demand for investment in mineral resources under the influence of the complex growth of net investment income is caused by technological progress. The mechanism of action of the investment multiplier and accelerator, linked to the autonomous investment, influencing the commissioning of mineral deposits, providing a subsequent impact on the associated industries is considered in details. The author has proposed to introduce a macroeconomic model of subsoil group of indicators characterizing the volume of autonomous investments in the development of the mineral resources sector and related industries.
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This paper is devoted to the impact of development of mineral resources on the economic security of Russia. The main branch of the national economy, to which mineral resources have a significant impact, are reviewed. The authors examine the economic security in terms of strategic types of mineral resources of the national economy and the competitiveness of mineral resources and their reproduction in the long term, as well as the impact of mineral resources development on the regional economy. It is concluded that the primary socioeconomic development of the regions demands, on the one hand, rapid reproduction and development of mineral resources, and on the other hand, infrastructure of the reclaimed subsoil. The paper presents the activities of the state and recommendations on the formation of public policy in the sphere of economic security at the federal, sectoral and regional levels. The findings are based on the evaluation of the role of mineral resources in the leading economies, developing countries and Russia.
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY
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The subject of the investigation is social and economic aspects of the threat of HIV/AIDS in the Russian Federation. The investigation was aimed at improving socio-economic monitoring of the HIV/AIDS threat. The methodology of systemic analysis and statistical methods were used. Three main sections of socio-economic monitoring of HIV/AIDS were defined with their problems, challenges and areas for improvement. Results of the study are applicable in justifying and shaping public policy to counter the threat of HIV/AIDS. Planned costs of measures to counter the threat of HIV/AIDS must be based on requirements, allocation and results achieved. Systemic approach to planning requires an analysis of interrelation between costs, requirements and results. The absence of a systemic approach to coordination of costs and requirements leads to inefficient use of resources.
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This paper is devoted to the problem of inter-regional inequalities in the quality and level of life of the population of Russia, representing an internal threat to the economic security of the country. With this purpose, on the basis of the classification of the various characteristics of social inequality the authors provide an assessment of the inter-regional differentiation in the quality and level of life of the population of Russia at the present stage. In this paper, the authors examine the system of socio-economic indicators, which allows to highlight the role of each subject in the processes that determine the overall picture of the inter-regional inequality. There are national and international methodological approaches for determining of social inequality in its different manifestations lay in the basis for the formation of a system of indicators. The research instruments of the inter-regional inequality are the generally accepted methods of economic-statistical analysis. Also there is an estimation of the territorial differences in the quality and level of life of the population of Russia in this article. The authors present a classification of regions from a position of used features of the social inequality, defined socially disadvantaged subjects. The result of the work is aimed at the alignment of the quality and standards of life of the population of Russia, which will contribute to the reduction of internal threat to the security of the country. The overall conclusion is that the signs of social disadvantage inherent in the regions with different levels of economic development. To ensure the economic security of the country it is necessary to align the situation of inequality in the quality and level of life of the population not only due to the economic growth of the underdeveloped regions, but also due to the improvement of the distribution incomes policy in subjects of the Russian Federation with different levels of economic development.
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This paper proposes a method of economic assessment of population health risk as a tool of life qualitymanagement and qualityof labor resources in the region (as factors of a region’s economic security). The technique is based on the cost of reducing the period of disability in the implementation of population health risk and takes into account the effects of risk prevention on levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. The method intends to support making decisions on planning measures to reduce population health risk at the level of regions, territories and separate objects to assess their cost-performance, optimization of investment and operating costs to reduce the population health risk and sustainable development of the territory.
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This paper deals with economic security of Russian regions in the light of the country's entry into the World Trade Organization. Different approaches to defining regional economic security, an assessment of competitiveness of Russian regions in comparison with the regions of Europe on selected indicators of competitiveness are presented. The paper considers the determinants of competitiveness of the region through various theoretical concepts. Based on a review of empirical and theoretical literature, the tools and ways of increasing the economic security are identified: diversification of export basket in designated areas, encouraging the formation and development of industrial clusters, attraction of foreign investments that generate positive externalities and leading to increased competitiveness of domestic companies.
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Disequilibrium between labor market and market of educational services has been under scrutiny by the expert community for quite some time, however a solution to the problem has not yet been found. Previous researches show not only the existence of said disequilibrium, but also the inefficiency of the measures that are aimed at compensating for it. In this context, the research goal becomes the search for those barriers and reasons that are upholding the disequilibrium situation, an unproductive one relative to the goals of the modernization of the national economy. In light of this problem, the authors examine the general social and economic context of interactions between the employer, and the employee prepared by the system of professional educational services, as well as employer expectations concerning the quality of the employee’s professional skills, and the requirements which they are forced to meet.
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This paper formulates methodological principles for the formation of an effective employment as a basic condition for the implementation of the employment potential of the region. In the case of Sverdlovsk region, the main problems of industrial employment in the region are reviewed, demographic base of the formation of labor potential is assess, factor analysis of its implementation using a quality index of employment, taking into account the state of its major structural elements and characterizing the dynamics of current trends in this area is conducted. The authors show that the regional labor and social policy is currently dominated by the orientation on the solution of tactical problems and implementation of measures to mitigate the situation at the current time. However, the nature of socio-economic development identifies the following strategic objectives as priorities: the need for restructuring of the regional economic system and, accordingly, the restructuring of the entire system of employment relations, and hence the entire reproduction cycle of labor potential. Based on the analysis results, an assessment of policy in the sphere of employment is made and a set of policy measures to create effective mechanisms for the implementation of the employment potential of the region at various levels of government is proposed.
HISTORIC EXPERIENCE
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Author Bersenev V. L.,This paper gives a brief overview of the reflection questions of economic security of the territory in the records of the economic, political and legal thoughts. Law codes of the ancient East countries, the treatises of the ancient Greek philosophers and medieval thinkers are analyzed. It is also noted that the proponents of economic liberalism (laissez-faire economy), and ones of the idea of paternalism (protection or state trusteeship of the economy) admitted the need for economic security. It is shown that the military power, maintaining of lawfulness and concern for people's welfare remained the key factors in this area for centuries.
FOOD SECURITY
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This paper deals with food safety as one of the areas of food security and food sovereignty. A review of concepts, models, acts on the power of international and national levels is made. The authors formulate a conclusion about the need for a measure of «food quality» with the release of the functional components of fitness (the ability to perform specified functions with the purpose) and safety (restrictions on the content of harmful substances in the products). The analysis of the competitiveness of local products is made on the quality characteristics based on the proportion of output indicator of inadequate quality or dangerous to health in the total volume of products placed on the market. The paper identifies key areas of federal and regional levels to comply with the quality of food.
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The analysis of functioning of complex production systems in agroindustrial sphere — large crop farms and livestock farms — shows that the basis for dynamic development of their productive activities is based on a reliable and stable operation of the complex biotech (human-machine) systems. Urgent problems, whose solution promotes a dynamic and efficient operation of complex biotechnological systems, are to create mathematical models of the total biotech system, allowing sufficiently informatively guide the work of major agricultural organizations. This paper discusses an alternative methodological approach to assessing and forecasting financial sustainability of an enterprise. An important place among the factors that shape the financial stability of the economic entity, takes the human factor (decision maker). Financial sustainability of the enterprise is seen from the perspective of bio-approach that includes elements of the system MME (man, machine, and environment). This approach improves the results when evaluating the adequacy of the financial stability of companies in various states of the economy. Newly developed approaches and mathematical models to manage systems of biotechnology make it possible to significantly increase the productivity of animals, crop production and the level of socio-economic status of people in the country.
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In thispaper, the authors regard the features ofthe functioningof agricultural organizations, presents the mainforms of business, main trends and reasons of the criminal bankruptcies, trendsof large-scalesocial production destructionin thePerm region are identified andset. Effect of the sizeof agricultural enterprisesis defined onthe level ofprofits andwages. Combination of features is highlightedthe affectingdestructive processes in the agricultural sector, such as pricing policies,price disparity, the low level of economicmanagement, the division of societyinto rich and poor. Basing on the analysis of industry enterprises of agriculture the main activities to identify features of the criminal and natural bankruptcies and measures to prevent them are developed and presented. Administrative and criminal liabilityis determinedfor suchacts.
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Diverse risks, objectively inherent in any segment of economic relations, in the economic crises are manifested to a greater extent than under standard conditions. This is especially true in key segments of the national economy — such as agroindustrial complex. Risks in agriculture have an impact on the overall level of food security in the country, the standard of living, so should be the subject of scientific studies. In this paper, a study of classification of risks in the agricultural sector of the Russian Federation is represented, which currently is the principal in our country, as well as the peculiarities of their development in the post-crisis period. The authors justified the need for active influence on the aggregate risks in the agroindustrial sector to ensure its sustainable development.
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Author Derunova E. A.,Object of research in this paper are the organizational and economic relations arising in the course of creation, development, an assessment of efficiency and advance of scientific development in agriculture. A research objective is economic-mathematical modeling of an assessment of efficiency of scientific achievements. Researches were based on synthesis of scientific development and the analysis of the actual materials on a studied subject with use of statistical, economic-mathematical, sociological, abstract and logic, monographic, comparative methods of research. The author’s technique of an assessment of efficiency of development in system of advance of scientific achievements in agriculture is presented. On the basis of generalization of results of a sociological method of research the correlation and regression model of dependence of a mark assessment of scientific and technical achievements from the main economic indicators of their development was constructed. The technique of an assessment of efficiency of scientific development on groups of criteria (level of technical perfection, efficiency, costs of development, degree of readiness of development, safety level) is approved and is used in practical activities of plane «Meliorator» at competitive selection of scientific production for development in agricultural production.
MODERN TOOLS OF ECONOMIC SECURITY DIAGNOSIS
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Author Shorikov A. F.,Dynamic model of minimax control over economic security state of the region in the presence of risksInvestigation and solution of management of economic security state in the region (MESSR) requires development of a dynamic economic-mathematical model that takes into account the presence of control actions, uncontrolled parameters (risk modeling errors, etc.) and availability of information deficit. At the same time, the existing approaches to solving such problems are based primarily characteristics of the main model parameters and special conditions for the realization of the process. We should note that to use the apparatus of stochastic modeling, very strict conditions are required, which in practice are usually not feasible in advance In this paper, we propose to use a deterministic approach for modeling and solving the original problem in the form of a dynamic programming problem of minimax control (optimization of a guaranteed result) MESSR at the determined point of time, taking into account the availability of risks of deterministic and stochastic nature (combined risks model). At the same time, under the risks in the social and economic system we understand the factors that negatively catastrophically affect the results of the reviewed processes inside it. For an effective use, a technique of prediction and assessment of time rows and stochastic risks in MESSR optimization process is presented, which can serve as a basis for the development of appropriate computer software. To solve the problem of program minimax control MESSR in the presence of risks, we propose a method which is reduced to the realization of a finite number of solutions of linear and convex mathematical programming and discrete optimization problem. The proposed method makes it possible to develop efficient numerical procedures to implement computer simulation of the dynamics of the problem, build program minimax control and gain optimal guaranteed result. The results presented in this paper can be used for economic-mathematical modeling and solving other optimization problems of forecasting processes and data management in a lack of information and the availability of risks, as well as to develop appropriate software and hardware systems to support effective management decisions in practice.
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This paper describes a method of modeling socio-demographic processes in a region based on the minimax approach. In this method, the simulated socio-demographic processes reflect the performance of a population fertility age model, reproductive systems and the structure of mortality, as management impact tools of fiscal spending on socially significant budget items (health, physical culture and sport, social policy, education, environmental protection) are considered. Testing methodology on the examples of the Russian Federation subjects included in the Ural Federal District is presented. Peculiarities of influence of funding of each socially important item on the social and demographic processes in the regions of the Ural Federal District are shown. Priorities of distribution of funds based on the level of budgetary provision in the region to ensure optimization of socio-demographic development of the region are shaped.
FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
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This paper reveals the dynamics of the main indicators of Uzbekistan’seconomic security at the present stage of development. Particular attention is paid to macro-and mesoeconomic aspects of sustainable development of national economy, implementation of institutional reforms to ensure competition, as well as favorable investment and business climate. The authors reveal potential risks and threats to the national economy in the movement of capital, reduction of export earnings, a tightening labor market, as well as suggest guidelines for improving the competitiveness atterritorial and sectoral levels.
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Author Kumo K.,During the four years since 2006, Tajikistan, åhe former Soviet republic, has been the world leader in receiving remittances as part of the GDP. However, despite the fact that over time there is growing interest due to the migration and remittances, few researchers pay attention to this region. In this paper, we use the results of the survey of families conducted in two different years to assess income of the families in Tajikistan and international labor migration of the Tajiks, and examine the relationship between income of the families in Tajikistan, the poorest of the former Soviet republics, and the remittances received from the international labor migrants, as well as the possibility of migration growth. No correlation was found between the level of family income and the amount of money sent from abroad, raising concerns about the altruistic models of the relationship between migration and remittances. Moreover, it also found that households with higher incomes are more able to supply workers, which shows that international labor migration from Tajikistan may not contribute to the Tajik migration of poor.
OPINIONS AND ASSESSMENTS
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Author Bagaryakov A. V.,This paper deals with threats to innovational security as one of the spheres of economic security of a region. The main threats are highlighted as follows: inadequate funding for research and technological development, low competitiveness of scientific and technical developments in world markets and low legal protection in the field of scientific research. Calculation results of science and technology (innovations), economic security of the subjects of the Urals Federal District for the period 2000-2010 are presented and described. Methodological tools developed by Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the diagnosis of innovative security regions of the Russian Federation have been tested and improved.
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Author Kotlyarova S. N.,This paper deals with the problems of legal regulation of cluster development in the Russian Federation at the regional level. Basic regulations governing the formation and development of clusters were put in a system. It is concluded that own regulatory regions, and regions using mainly general federal approach to the formation of cluster policy are poorly developed. The practice of clustering of the Russian Federation was generalized. Prerequisites for the formation of clusters in the regions and their subsequent development were identified. A comparison of approaches to the formation of cluster policy in the Russian Federation was made, particularities in the areas of the clusters were highlighted and the types of state support for their formation were determined. The basic reasons for the development of regional clusters are: construction of the type of dominant firms, mutual cooperation of cluster members, active support from government and regional authorities (public-private partnerships and personal involvement of management in the region) and bottom-up approach.
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Author Nekrasova E. V.,The problems of single-industry towns and their solutions are reviewed in this paper. The analysis of internal mobility of the population of Russia on the basis of sociological research and Gallup International Research Institute of the family is made. The necessity of optimization of commuting between the territories of the municipal level to address the one-company towns is underlined. A mathematical model for the optimization of the problem of migration flows between the territories of the municipal level for commuting by road was developed. Testing was conducted on a model example of the six type-representative singleindustry towns of Sverdlovsk region (Revdinskiy district, VerkhnyayaPyshma, towns of Krasnoturinsk, Krasnouralsk, Serov and Sukhoi Log). Taking into account the current situation on the labor market and future labor requirements, a division of municipalities in the territory of employment and departure of migrants was performed under consideration. An optimal plan was constructed in areas of employment in company towns of Sverdlovsk region, which is designed to implement the scheme of traffic from the north to the south of Sverdlovsk region with the organization of interchange hub in the city of Yekaterinburg.
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Author Leont'eva A. G.,This paper presents a situational analysis of the level of life safety in the field of demographic regions of the Ural Federal District. The analysis is based on data from the Federal Statistics and covers the period 2000-2010. We have developed a system of indicators for evaluating safety in the demographic sphere. We set the main threats to the social and economic stability in the regions. The system of thresholds includes three blocks: the reproduction of the population, marriage and family relationships and health. We have presented a quantitative description of the main threats. Identified priority areas of social protection, providing increased stability of the regional socio-economic development, reducing the likelihood of social conflicts and improve the demographic situation.