This paper reviews the structural components of the state reserve theory with elements of decomposition and tools for studies in separate directions. The system of state material reserve, which includes the following components: economy - people - natural environment - is a necessary and sufficient reserve for their operation and development which is having the ability to respond to short-, medium- and long-term fluctuations in the economy and consider the risks of adverse factors appliance. It was determined that a necessary and sufficient reserve for the operation and development of the region is a major factor in ensuring its economic security. A method of diagnostics for the state material reserve system within the economic security of the region is presented and described. The approbation of the methodological apparatus for the assessment of the state material reserve by the example on the Ural Federal District was done.

This paper shows the changes in theoretical and methodological approaches to the diagnosis of the economic security of the regions that have taken place over the last 20–25 years. This period covers a complex way, which Russia overcame since the beginning of perestroika, when the country faced two crises, surviving changing socio-economic structure and choosing the path of innovative development. The authors suggest that an assessment of the «health» of the regions in terms of economic security and the division into separate spheres is an effective methodological tool that allows not only ascertaining the state, but also looking into the future development. This paper, on the one hand, is a kind of report on the results of the Ural scientific school on the issues of economic security, on the other hand, it demonstrates the authors’ opinion (not always coinciding with other researchers') on this issue.

This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer.

In the article, a synergetic method of the economic time series forecasting on the basis of the modified method of Hurst is discussed. It is a new nonlinear method of predicting the development of economic systems according to time series on macro- and mesolevels. The main theorem underlying the forecasting method is formulated and strictly proved: for a chaotic series of a particular length it is possible to specify a time interval where the series is reliably predicted with the Hurst exponent more than 0.5. The examples of the fractal characteristics’ calculation and the forecasting taking into account time of reliable forecast of the socioeconomic indexes’ behavior — oil prices, natural gas prices, the Dow Jones index, the «euro-dollar» prices, the Gross Domestic Product, and some other indicators at the regional level are given. All calculations are carried out by means of the specialized software product upgraded for the task solution set in this article.

This article presents an evolution of theoretical and methodological approaches to the welfare study. Existing theories of wellbeing are grouped according to accounted method of goods and resources distribution among society members. As a welfare future as a category we highlight objective (measured) and subjective (estimated) components. Based on the analysis of scientific literature we determine the ratio of individual and social welfare. The main differences between the categories of “ welfare” and “wealth” are given. The main difference consists in multidirectional changes of welfare and wealth for an increase (decrease) in income of the individual (country). In this article we present an analysis of modern approaches to the definition of welfare: state, institutional and expendable approach. The welfare level estimation is complicated due to the need to consider the subjective component. The article provides an analysis of existing approaches to quantitative welfare evaluation ranging from the most common techniques (HDI, GDP) to alternative techniques (Happy Planet Index).Methodological devices are structured by levels of welfare assessment objects (world, country, region, people). Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of methods we can conclude that the most reliable method is a comprehensive approach, which includes economic, environmental, social, vital and infrastructure indicators. The author’s approach to the formation of a complex methodological tool for individual and territory welfare estimation is presented in this article.

In the article, the results of the research of correlation of welfare and public health of the population of Russia in the conditions of economic instability are presented. The review of performance indicators of development of public sentiments of society applied both in Russian and foreign practice is submitted. The concept content of the “social and psychological potential of a region” as an indicator of public health of the population is opened. On the basis of this concept, the potential pattern is created. The evaluation method of social and psychological potential of a region is developed, its main idea is an integrated assessment of both the potential of a region in general and its separate components. The assessment of the condition of potential in territorial subjects of the Russian Federation is given. Character and power of correlation between indicators of welfare and level of social and psychological potential of territorial subjects of the Russian Federation on the basis of development of correlation matrixes are revealed, also, the regional consistent patterns and tendencies are determined.

An approach to solving the problems of the shadow economy on the basis of threat assessments of economic security of the region. Presented developed by authors method of estimating damage the shadow economy. The analysis of damage to the territory of the shadow economy on the example of the Urals Federal District. Based on this analysis, a concept of minimizing the negative impact of the shadow economy.

Methodical questions of diagnosing drug situation in the territory. It shows the composition of performance indicators to assess the state of the drugs situation in the regions. The approaches to the determination of the key indicators of the drug situation - the actual number of drug users, a critical mass of drug addicts, the damage caused by drug addiction. Given the results of the diagnosis of the drug situation for Urals Federal District for the period 1999 - 2003 years. The main directions of work to counter the spread of drug addiction and neutralize its effects within the county.

In the article, the approach based on the authors’ hypothesis is considered: the development of Russia has specific characteristics (on the one hand, its size, mentality and certain closed nature of its economy, on the other hand, the considerable dominating resource and human potential, and, as the result, its real role in the world economic community). The diagnostics of these characteristics (at the level of the individual’s welfare and territory of accommodation) reveals crises, estimates threats to region socio-economic development at early stages and helps to evaluate the state of a region for 3-5 years. In other words, managers have time necessary for rapid response to the crisis phenomena and administrative mistakes, for decreasing the impact of the arising threats. The purpose of the article is to present the theoretical and methodological tools of the appearing threats recognition at their early stages, which allows to enter the crisis period with smaller losses. Computational experiments to classify the prior socio-economic crises have been conducted (9 possible options are considered), the trajectories of change of the main indicators of the individual’s welfare and territory of residence influenced by various factors are digitized. On the basis of the proposed approach (named as the economic tomography), the attempt of the comprehensive assessment of the state of Russian typical representative regions is made.

The article presents the flowchart of the and analysis and information system “Anti-crisis” intended for the integrated assessment of the parameters of the economic security of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. This system takes into account the risks, threats and their forecasting. The scheme reflects the interaction of separate program modules. The integration of modules with the unified database management system is described: access to the database, automatic backup and recovery of databases in real time, data transmission through an open channel with the use of modern encryption-decryption algorithm. The main units of the system are allocated: a diagnostic block of the economic security condition, block of the well-being of an individual and the territory of residence, block of extremism, correlation block, block of modelling and forecasting the security of the entities of the Russian Federation. Within the block of the modelling, the main generalized mathematical model based on the system of the nonlinear differential equations and created for the purpose to take into account the correction coefficients, as well as all types of interaction of indicators, is given. The main types of optimization problems of the interaction of indicators by using the generalized model, are compiled. On the basis of the developed optimization problems, the forecasting from 2016 to 2020 is made.