Arhive: #3 2020
NEW RESEARCH INTO REGIONAL ECONOMY PROBLEMS
-
The paper examines the possible concepts for developing the potential of the Russian Arctic that can be used for elaborating the regional development strategy. The research aims to analyse the opportunities and limitations of environmentally friendly, socially and economically sustainable development of the Arctic region. The multidisciplinary research methodology includes analytical, statistical and econometric methods, as well as the method of scientific synthesis. The analysis is based on the source data obtained from public sources. The study results fully confirm the hypothesis and show that, for the development of the Russian Arctic, it is inadvisable to use only the resource-rental pattern. The finding s demonstrat e that , i n nea r future , the Russian Arctic will not be able to develop the research, transport and tourism sectors due to the lack of efficien t logistics, adequate infrastructure and stable telecommunications. Private investors are not interested in the Arctic region, while public investment in environmentally friendly, socially and economically sustainable development is minimal. In the context of limited budgetary resources, as well as the tasks that require immediate action (e. g. recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic), the optimal solution is to restructure the activities of two natural monopolies in the region (PJSC Rosneft Oil Company and PJSC Gazprom). The research results can be used for establishing a new development strategy of the Russian Arctic. Further research should focus on methods and approaches to using modern digital technologies in the region for enabling environmentally safe, socially responsible and economically sustainable development of the Russian Arctic.
-
The paper aims to analyse methodological approaches to the development of rural areas, considering the environmental and economic conditions of the North. We claim that, from a social perspective, the sectoral approach based on the agricultural production policy is ineffective. It is advisable to apply an integrated approach. It considers rural development as a process of improving the life of the population who is directly related to the use of land and other biological resources included in the system of the geographical division of labour and related social relations. This study not only analyses production indicators but also assesses the potential and efficient use of rural areas and households. They include homesteads, public infrastructure, municipal infrastructure in rural (and partially urban) settlements and settlement systems, and natural landscapes with certain social and economic functions. The example of the Komi Republic demonstrates underutilisation of the rural natural resources and labour potential, an extremely small investment in rural infrastructure, and low living standards of the rural population. To improve the situation in the Republic, it is necessary to develop agriculture and assess its strategic trends, considering the objective need to increase the self-sufficiency of the population with crop and livestock products. Other directions for development are the diver- sification of the rural economy and its landscape adaptation; the strengthening of the relations between agriculture, forestry and developing manufacturing industry; the establishment of new relations in the agricultural sector following the «city — village» line. Moreover, it is essential to preserve the Northern ethnic culture and traditional economic activities and introduce environ- mental services into the economic specialisation of municipalities. The mechanisms for implementing these directions include innovative modernisation of rural spatial and economic systems, as well as tools for regulatory, organisational, and financial support of rural production and life that considers its Northern specifics. We identified a set of directions and mechanisms of strategic planning. Comparison of rural development with the officially adopted agricultural strategies and programmes revealed that they differ significantly, especially in social and territorial aspects. It is necessary to eliminate this significant gap in the spatial development planning for improving the living standard of the rural population.
REGIONAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
-
Author Svetlana V. Doroshenko,Nowadays, comparative research in the field of small business in the border regions of Russia and Kazakhstan plays an important role, as both countries are willing to increase the relevance of this sector in the national economy. A theoretical review on the topic has demonstrated the need to intensify research focused on the development problems of the Russian- Kazakh regions, including assessments of the business sector. The study aims to comparatively assess the contribution of the border regions to the development of small business in Russia and Kazakhstan and examine the reaction of their business community to changes in the environment. I hypothesise that, in the period from 2011 to 2018, the share of the Russian and Kazakh border regions in the indicators of small business development has not changed significantly. The analysis is based on the author’s calculations of the ratio of the border regions in terms of four indicators of small business development: the number of subjects, the number of employees, turnover, and outputs. The analysis results showed that the border regions of both countries are hardly «sensitive» to government initiatives aimed at the business activity promotion. The values of the in- dicators of small business development either remain the same (as in Russia) or decrease (as in Kazakhstan). Simultaneously, the border regions of both countries demonstrate a high migration outflow that could be gradually reduced by the business sector. The significance of small business in these processes is underestimated: this economic entity organizes the flow of material, labour, and financial resources, as well as participates in socio-political processes and spatial planning in the border areas. The further research directions include comparative assessments of the development of individual entrepreneurs and medium-sized business, analysis of institutional mechanisms for small business development in the border area. Follow-up studies should also focus on developing the proposals for improving regional and municipal strategies and programmes to strengthen their border context.
-
In Russia, increasing amounts of municipal solid waste (MSW) accompanied by environmental degradation have recently led to changes in legislation. Their main goal is to reduce landfilling, to increase utilisation, to introduce the principle of extended producer responsibility (EPR). These are first steps towards a circular economy. The main purpose of the paper is to study how to improve the efficiency of Russian MSW management using circular economy criteria. The study relies on methods such as systemic analysis and synthesis, comparison and generalisation, stakeholder analysis. The detailed analysis of current MSW management system in Russia showed contradictions between its participants regarding the distribution of material waste streams and financing, which leads to difficulties in EPR principle implementation and to possible problems in achieving the goals of the entire MSW management system. According to its current design, recycling receives maximum government support, opposite to reuse and prevention of waste: companies involved in these activities are still outside the scope of MSW management system, and the authors recommend considering their legislative inclusion in it. The critical analysis of Russia’s EPR design compared with EU experience showed problems such as low environmental fees, low utilisation standards and the lack of households’ involvement, which makes EPR design inefficient. The current regulations may help divert some waste from landfills to utilisation and recycling, but beyond that the incentives do not yet correspond to those required for implementing the EPR principle and a circular economy. Consequently, the paper provides recommendations for amending this, which can be used by decision makers at the federal level to improve MSW management system and increase its efficiency.
-
Author Vladimir A. Tsybatov,Creating regional programs for energy efficient development, policymakers rely on the targets of the Federal Energy Strategy, planning to reduce the energy intensity of gross regional product (GRP) by 40 % or more until 2035. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the validity of the set targets, as well as the limitations occur in the process of GRP energy intensity reduction. Based on the model calculations, the study investigates the possibilities and limitations of reducing GRP energy intensity in the Russian Federation in the period 2018 — 2035 on the example of the Samara region. The interrelated economic and energy models of the Samara region allowed calculating and testing the scenarios of regional energy efficient development. The analysis consid - ered the targets of state energy saving and energy efficiency programmes, declared in the draft Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2035. The research established that economic growth is essential for reducing GRP energy intensity. The increase in economic growth means its greater contribution to GRP energy intensity reduction. Economic growth reduces the energy in- tensity of GRP due to several reasons. They include savings from the increase in the production of goods and services; advanced growth of GRP economy compared to the growth of capital-intensive fuel and energy industry; growing lag between the amount of energy-consuming equipment of the population and the value of GRP. The example of the Samara region demonstrates that it is possible to reduce GRP energy intensity by 40 % in the period 2018–2035 only with an average annual economic growth of at least 5 %, including the implementation of all industrial energy saving and energy efficiency programmes stated in the Energy Strategy. The same conclusions are valid for the Russian economy in general. If the average annual development rate of the Russian economy is below 4 %-5 %, it will be impossible to reach the main target of the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2035, which is the reduction of energy intensity of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2035 by 34 % compared to 2015. Public authorities can use the study results when developing strategic planning documents.
-
This paper attempts to explore economic performance in countries of the former Soviet Union since their transition to a market system based on the World Bank data for the period from 1993 to 2016. The first part of the study is related to estimating proximate sources of economic growth within the standard growth accounting framework. Results indicate that under the period of study capital accumulation was the primary engine for growth in the post-Soviet region. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates were modest ranging from 1.15 % for Uzbekistan and 0.77 % for Belarus to −1.83 % for Turkmenistan and −1.20 % for Latvia accordingly. In the second part of the paper we analyse productivity level across all former Soviet republics by decomposing differences in output per worker into differences in capital intensity and productivity for the year 2016. Compared to Russia, a frontier for the analysis, nearly all former Soviet republics demonstrated a lower level of productivity. Some countries of the region such as Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan have extremely high capital intensity. Productivity in Russia was about 14 times higher than productivity in Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. Despite the fact that more than two decades passed since the transition to a market system the Soviet legacy of aggregate production did not experience notable changes.
-
In recent years, the Russian Federation has been actively implementing an import substitution policy. While this particular issue is the topic of various academic studies, there is a lack of research focussing on the quantitative assessment of import substitution. Such an approach allows assessing the effectiveness of the state policy at different levels. Additionally, it provides an opportunity to identify tools for improving the effectiveness of the import substitution. Using examples of Russia and the Ural Federal District (UrFD), the study considers import substitution as an opportunity to stabilise the socio-economic development. We hypothesise that, primarily, the most important competitive advantage of the country is a developed high-tech industry. This assumption requires an immediate activation of import substitution processes and the development of a methodology for assessing its effectiveness. We used the concepts of system economy, sustainable development, innovative development, as well as the methods of comparative, factor, structural analysis, statistical modelling and forecasting methods. Our approach to assessing the effective import substitution includes a developed dynamic import substitution coefficient; its standard value is equal to 1. At the macro-level, this coefficient changes depending on the current import substitution policy. For example, in 2015 — 2016, the coefficient had increased sharply and then decreased below the standard value by 20%. We have predicted that at the macro-level the dynamic coefficient of import substitution will stabilise after 2019. The example of the Ural Federal District demonstrates that the reverse situation occurs at the meso-level. The calculations show that the region still adheres to the economic model based on the sales of raw materials. The distribution of UrFD enterprises by sales and profitability of operating activities confirms this statement. The largest enterprises in the region (by sales) belong to the oil and gas industry. We propose measures to support industrial policy and production aimed at import substitution. These measures include regulatory, infrastructure, financial, and marketing aspects. The obtained results can be applied in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
-
Author Evgeniya Kh. Tukhtarova,The paper studies how the global crisis influences migration processes that are accompanied by structural changes in the relationship between consumption and saving of the population of different countries. The article examines the hypothesis on the multidimensionality of the impact of the crisis on the population of various countries. To solve the research problems, analytical, statistical and econometric methods were applied. A combination of these methods allowed identifying structural shifts in the relationship between consumption and saving because of changes in technological paradigms. Consequently, such shifts lead to changes in the welfare of the population of different countries. While for some countries these changes will be acute, negative, and short-term, for others this process will be less acute, but with long-term negative consequences. At the same time, contrary to the examined economic crises of the XVIII-XX centuries that demonstrated a decrease in migration, in the XXI century, new crisis phenomena show the absence of such a connection. The author’s position confirms the findings of other researchers stating that migration processes are loosely connected to short-term economic crises in the host territory. However, the close link between migration flows and long-term development factors of the host territory indicates a high potential of the coun try in a crisis. The conducted study has confirmed this hypothesis. The obtained results can be used to justify propos als and measures for regulating migration processes, taking into account the priority of national interests for the scientific, technological and economic development of the Russian Federation.
-
The academic community has been actively discussing and assessing the results of the reform of the Russian healthcare system, which began in the early 2000s. This study considers the results of the reform from the perspective of a concept of health-related behaviour. The paper determines the behaviour patterns of household members concerning personal expenditures on medical goods and services, depending on their monetary income and spending pattern. The main research method was an econometric (correlation and regression) analysis of time series. As a result, we discovered that household income dynamics significantly influence expenditures on medical goods and hygiene items (that vary according to the household income). Moreover, household expenditures on health care depend on its spending on food products. We conclude that, firstly, in 2005–2019, Russia has been showing a steady growth of paid medical services (in total medical care), which are available to less than half of the households. Secondly, health-related behaviour of different groups of households divided by income level significantly changes depending on the income dynamics and spending pattern. Thirdly, an increase in income decreases expenditures on medical services and goods, as well as in an increase in expenditures on health-improvement (preventive) services. We have revealed that spending on food products on average determines 55.9 % of a change in expenditures on medical services. Simultaneously, in the households’ budgets, a 1 % increase in food expenditures displaces 2 % of expenditures on health-improvement services. The obtained results extend the understanding of the features of health-related behaviour that is defined by households’ income, as well as by the spending pattern on food, medical goods and services. Public authorities can consider the revealed features of health-related behaviour of different groups of households divided by income when developing and improving the socio-economic policy in the field of health care.
-
The continuing fertility decline in Russia encourages the study of socio-economic factors influencing it as well as the relations between these factors. The contradicting results of international and Russian research do not allow unambiguous conclusions in this field. The paper aims to analyse the influence of socio-economic factors on the total fertility rate, as well as on fertility rates by birth order (first, second, third, and fourth with subsequent children). We hypothesise that the birth rate of the first and subsequent children is affected by various socio-economic factors. Using panel data econometric analysis, we examined the information on 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period from 2005 to 2017. We applied fifteen main and three additional explanatory variables (regressors), which reflect demographic, economic and social (infrastructural) factors of fertility. The analysis includes the development of models with fixed effects for the total fertility rate and fertility rates by birth order, and examination of the interdependence of certain factors. As a result of the analysis, we revealed the differences in the influence of individual variables on the dynamics of fertility rates for the first child and subsequent children. For example, the influence of real monetary income on the birth order rates is gradually decreasing, while the influence of the unemployment rate, reserves-to-production ratio, and marriage rate is multidirectional. Additionally, in some cases, we discovered a negative relationship between the birth rate and number of regressors (the number of abortions, the share of the urban and working-age population, the pre-school enrolment). The research results can be considered by public authorities when developing the state demographic and social policy at the federal and local levels.
-
Human capital and knowledge have been recognised as important elements in fostering territorial cohesion and sustainable economic development for a long time. In European Union (EU), this recognition was so significant that the European Social Fund was created in the founding Treaty of Rome in 1957, and this support was reinforced in 1972 with the European Regional Development Fund. For their intrinsic nature and mission, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) not only play an undisputed role in promoting these factors, but also and simultaneously are recognised by their huge spillover effects on the economy of the geographic spaces in which they are included. Since Portugal has become a UE member, these HEIs have benefited from a significant support to investment. The main purpose of this article is to analyse Higher Education Institutions investment between 2000 and 2018, especially focusing on the status of the University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, both regarding northern institutions, more recent ones and other located in low-density territories. After difficult data collection and subsequent construction of absolute and relative investment indicators, results show that the institutions located in disadvantaged regions had less access to community funds, which can compromise the process of training human capital and knowledge and therefore, the processes of regional convergence and national territorial cohesion. These values are of vital importance for the discus sion of ways to enhance the dynamism of these institutions, namely through positive discrimination in access to community funds and ways of facilitating the necessary institutional counterpart in investment financing.
-
The insufficient growth of labour productivity at the enterprises of the Russian defence industry compared to the world level results in the need to identify the causes of the current situation. In recent years, the military rearmament led to the use of new technologies in production, personnel reduction, and, ultimately, to the increase in labour productivity. Nevertheless, the growth of the target value due to a decrease in the number of employees has mixed effects on the development of the socio-economic environment of single-industry towns. As an information base for the study, we used the statistical data of six core enterprises of ROSATOM State Corporation for the period from 2008 to 2017. The paper relies on Russian and foreign research focused on measuring the impact of various factors on labour productivity. We applied correlation-regression analysis and index method of factor analysis. As a result, we built a multiple linear model of the dependence of labour productivity on the average headcount, capital-labour ratio of active business assets, the ratio of the active part of assets in their total value, and investments. Further, we examined the statistically significant difference of the multiple linear regression model and its parameters and confirmed the applicability of the postulated model for predicting indicators values. The index analysis of labour productivity as well as indices of capital-labour ratio and capital productivity revealed a discrepancy between the growth of an indicator and the increase in the utilisation efficiency of fixed assets in dynamics. Additionally, it indicated the need to compare labour productivity factors with performance indicators when predicting the development of enterprises. The conducted research and constructed model can be used for developing strategic plans for the defence industry enterprises, as well as for considering how the changes in labour productivity and personnel of the core enterprises of the defence industry influence the economy of single-industry towns.
-
Since the demographic situation in the Russian Federation is characterised by high mortality of the economically active population, it is necessary to assess significant economic and social losses for the country and its regions. In this regard, the importance of the research lies in developing a methodology to assess economic losses from premature mortality of the population. We hypothesise that both the loss of production of goods and services and the volume of their consumption determine the value of economic losses from premature mortality, which can be differentiated by gender, age and causes of death of the population, depending on regional characteristics. As the main research methods, we applied statistical data analysis using the methodology of the System of National Accounts (SNA). Then, we proposed a methodological approach to a comprehensive assessment of economic losses from premature mortality of the population based on three differentiating features such as gender, age, and cause of death. Moreover, we structure economic losses, depending on the components of the gross regional product in the present and in the future. We have substantiated the feasibility of considering the consumption of goods and services by the unemployed population aged from 0 to 72 years in the structure of economic losses from premature mortality. We tested the methodology on the statistical database of Federal State Statistic Service (Rosstat) for the Perm region in the period 2009 — 2017. The methodological approach allowed us to comprehensively analyse the economic losses from premature mortality of the population in the region. In contrast to those strategies described in the academic literature, our methodology provides a more complete assessment of the magnitude of economic losses, allowing the selection of effective tools for regional health policy.
INDUSTRY AND INTER-INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS
-
In 2015, as a response to global challenges, the members of the United Nations (UN) designed the Sustainable Development Goals they intend to achieve by 2030. The transition to a green economy is at the core of the global sustainable development agenda. Such an approach includes the introduction of sustainable production and consumption patterns, increased use of renewable energy sources, and carbon footprint reduction in production chains. In particular, the countries that export fuel and energy resources are under pressure due to the plans to stop using hydrocarbons as a fuel source. Subsequently, a new technological paradigm will put additional pressure on the countries that export mineral resources. Thus, it is appropriate to examine how commodity producing countries integrate the principles of sustainable development in national policies. We analysed the countries that are largely dependent on the export of fuel and energy resources as well as the countries that export mineral resources. Then, we assessed the participation of these countries in key international initiatives for sustainable development. Finally, we summarised and systematised the approaches of the examined countries to introduce sustainable development principles into national strategies and policies. Examination of the international experience allows making the following conclusions. Commodity producing countries consider the global sustainable development agenda as an opportunity to improve the national economy and implement the reforms necessary for further development. In this case, the global agenda is an additional argument to substantiate the necessity of reforms for the national elite. In the field of sustainable development, there is a trend towards strengthening the regulatory role of the state, which combines direct control measures and measures aimed at the establishment of the green national economy.
-
Author Evgeniya A. Korneeva,The environmental imperative of the strategy for the economic development of the Russian regions requires a shift from the dominant productive land-use model to a model that accepts and develops green technologies, including forest reclamation. The academic community has been discussing the low attractiveness of such an approach because of its low economic substantiation, based on the traditional practice of calculating additional crop production. The study aims to analyse whether funding the forest reclamation of arable land effectively stimulates their development in the Russian Federation and the creation of regional programmes for protective afforestation. The applied research methods include simulation, system analysis, compensation costs and market price methods. A proposed new approach emphasizes the positive impact of forests, including sustainable development, environmental security of the agricultural sector, and the reduction of agricultural land degradation. The applicability of forest reclamation was confirmed for the forest-steppe and dry steppe zones of the Russian Plain. For slope arable land, the study substantiated the parameters of the area covered by forest, considering that water-regulating and protective forest plantations include the simplest hydraulic structures. The study identified regional costs for the implementation of necessary measures and described environmental and economic effects as the advantages of forest reclamation for agriculture. Th e dynamic s o f the main indicators of the effectiveness of anti-erosion measures depend on the zone, the steepness of the slope of arable land, the erosion hazard, and biotechnological features of forest plantations. The research results are important for ensuring sustainable development of agricultural Russian regions with a high risk of water erosion, withdrawal of eroded land from agriculture and reduction of cadastral value.
-
The study analyses energy supply to isolated areas considering the development of priority areas of the regional economy and assessing the dependence between consumer finances and electricity costs. We examined energy supply problems in the example of the Tuva Republic, the Russian region with vast isolated areas and high prices for energy. We explained the reasons for the increase in electricity costs, including small-scale generation sources based on fossil fuels. The limitations of economically substantiated energy transmission at light loads prevent the connection to a centralised energy supply systems in isolated territories, leading to a decentralised energy supply. Thus, we proposed a methodological toolkit for solving the problem of economic substantiation of the dependence between consumer finances and electricity costs, testing it on the example of the gold mining industry. Our hypothesis relies on technological development opportunities in the field of renewable energy sources to reduce the construction and operation costs of generation facilities. Since the economic feasibility of using renewable energy sources for investors is determined by the dependence of consumer finances on energy generation costs, it is necessary to create energy resource structures depending on different basic conditions. For that purpose, we showed the linear dependence of the profitability of gold mining investment projects on electricity costs. The proposed criteria and methods allow determining the threshold values of the economic efficienc y o f energ y service s provide d b y supplier s an d energ y produce d b y self-generating facilities. Based on these results, further research can focus on analysing the impact of electricity costs on the financial parameters of projects to apply innovative energy supply schemes and identifying thresholds of the response of profitability to energy costs reduction for different energy consumption projects.
-
Digitalisation is a new global trend that significantly influences the economic and social development of various territorial systems (from municipal to macroeconomic level). We hypothesise that the digital transformation of industrial enterprises is becoming a key factor of territorial competitiveness that determines regional development prospects and the possibility of increasing the growth rate of the national economy. To substantiate this hypothesis, we examined the spatial relationships, which emerge when industrial enterprises introduce digital technologies at the regional level, as well as assessed the impact of digitalisation processes on the renewal of the human resource capacity of the regional industry. For analysing the digital modernisation of the regional industry, we used official statistics on the share of organisations using radio-frequency identification (RFID). We chose this particular indicator because RFID-technology is the closest to cyber-physical systems, which enable the so-called smart production (the main indicator of the fourth industrial revolution). Using the global and local Moran’s indexes and the migration matrix of spatial weights, we studied the spatial heterogeneity of the digital industry transformation across the Russian regions. Anselin’s local autocorrelation matrix was applied to analyse inter-regional relationships, which emerge when manufacturing enterprises use of digital technologies. The calculated negative spatial autocorrelation index proves that digitalisation processes in industrial production have a high spatial heterogeneity: only a small part of the regions is characterised by a high level of RFID use by manufacturing enterprises. Using the migration flow matrix of graduates, we revealed that the constituent entities of the Russian Federation differ not only in indicators of using digital technologies but also in attractiveness to young, highly qualified personnel. The results of the spatial analysis confirm that the introduction of smart production technologies by industrial enterprises significantly influences the progressive socio-economic development of territories. This conclusion opens up new topics for research, including the theory of regional economic growth and the issues of transformation of the digital space of the national economic system.
-
Increased connectivity between regions in Indonesia is believed to impact the productivity capacity of each region, as well as its economic growth. Moreover, the influence of connectivity on the surrounding area is commonly known as the indirect effect (spillover effect). This effect can increase the number of products, goods and services used as production factors. The study aims to examine the effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth. We used spatial modelling to estimate the impact of transportation infrastructure on the economy of 34 provinces in Indonesia in 2017. We applied the spatial lag of X model (SLX), spatial autoregressive model (SAR), spatial error model (SEM), spatial autoregressive combined model (SAC), spatial Durbin model (SDM), spatial Durbin error model (SDEM), and spatial autoregressive combined mixed model (SAC mixed). According to the estimation results, the SAC mixed model is the best spatial model, as it has the smallest value of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and significant coefficients of ρ (rho) and λ (lambda) parameters. The results show that the indicators “bus stations”, “domestic investment” and “foreign investment” have a direct effect on the economic growth in 34 Indonesian provinces. In addition, we revealed the presence of indirect effects (spillovers) between provinces in Indonesia for the same variables.
-
Nowadays, the electrification of the automotive industry in some regions symbolises the transition to a sustainable economy. Moreover, these changes were initiated by regulatory authorities, and not only consumers and manufacturers. The article summarizes the results of the first decade of implementing Chinese governmental policy promoting sales of electric vehicles. Our goal is to acquaint the Russian-speaking audience with the successful practise of state support of the emerging industry. As we focused on reviewing and analysing the information, the main research method is the survey of open sources and academic literature. In the first part of the article, we reported the key role of China in the global electric vehicle market and identified the main driving forces in the transformation of the national automotive industry. In the second part, we closely examined the actions taken by the Chinese authorities to ensure an increase in the share of electric vehicles. In the third part, we summarised and analysed the possible short-term changes, as well as discussed the impact of the described processes on the global economy. The implementation of the aforementioned policy enabled a breakthrough, allowing Chinese automotive industry to reach the leading position in terms of sales and production of electric vehicles. Therefore, this research can be used for both the adoption of successful practice and analysis of the influence of the emerging electric vehicle industry on the Russian and global economy.
Urban Economics
-
At the present stage, urban economists widely use Zipf ’s law to assess the urban regional and national systems. Zipf ’s law or the rank–size rule is a pattern linking the population of a city with its place in the hierarchy of cities arranged in descending order depending on their size. Using Zipf ’s law, the study aims to analyse the uniformity of the distribution of population, employees, enterprises and organisations in Russian cities. The research is based on the data of the Federal State Statistics Service. We selected a sample of cities from each Federal District and Russia as a whole. The sample included settlements with the status cities and more than 100 thousand inhabitants in 2016. The maximum values of the Zipf coefficient were calculated for the indicators “population size” and “average annual number of employees of enterprises”. Regarding the Federal Districts, the estimated Zipf coefficients ranges from 0.5 to 0.9 in terms of the population size; from 0.4 to 0.8 in terms of the average annual number of the employees of enterprises; from 0.4 to 0.8 in terms of the number of enterprises and organisations. For reducing the identified interregional differentiation in the Federal Districts of Russia, we advise to develop small and medium cities. Further research should focus on the application of Zipf ’s law to create a method for determining the optimal size of a city in a territorial space.
-
Author Anna N. Bufetova,The urban system and its diversity are essential resources for economic development. At the intra-regional level, cities that do not have the status of the regional administrative centre shape the structure and diversity of the urban system. The article presents the results of the study on the distribution of non-capital Russian cities (depending on their size) as well as on the mobility patterns that influence their dynamics in the post-Soviet period. Based on data about the population of the Russian cities in the period 1991 — 2016, the study uses the method for analysing the dynamics of the distribution with the application of Markov chains. The study has demonstrated the predominance of downward mobility of non-capital cities within the city size distribution, which results in their considerable concentration at the left side of the distribution and the decrease in the diversity of city size. Simultaneously, the mobility of cities is more intense in the eastern part of the country, as the mobility patterns contribute to the preservation of greater diversity of city size (compared to the western part). It is possible to identify three groups of non-capital cities that differ in mobility patterns and distribution directions. Th e fir st gro up includ es cities belonging to agglomerations of large regional capitals, whose dynamics of distribution are opposite to the dynamics of the distribution of the totality of non-capital cities. The second group comprises cities belonging to the agglomeration shadow with the most unfavourable dynamics of the distribution. The third group contains remote cities located in the periphery, which show a slight tendency towards the formation of a bimodal distribution. The scale of these groups differs in the eastern and western parts of Russia. The findings complement the results of other studies, expand knowledge about the modern dynamics of regional settlement systems, as well as determine further research areas. The revealed negative trends in the evolution of the city size distribution substantiate the need for a transition to the regulated development of the urban system. Such an approach should consider the consequences of the spatial development policy for different groups of cities and should strive to maintain the diversity of settlement systems.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
-
Creating society for all individuals by social inclusion is the best way to fight poverty and social exclusion. The construction of socially inclusive communities should be supported and encouraged by all partners in society not only the government. Thus, societies should create partnerships among all actors. These partnerships should promote complementary strategies for change, addressing the broad range of economic, social and environmental policies. It is time for economic zones to play their part in achieving social inclusion and sustainable development. Special Economic Zones are known for supporting the strategy of economic reform, decreasing the unemployment ratio and attracting new investments. The paper aims to propose design elements for creating socially inclusive Suez Canal Economic Zone. For this purpose, we introduced essential strategies of building an inclusive society. Moreover, we analysed inclusive growth indicators and the main characteristics of firms and workers in the Suez Canal Zone. The results include attracting foreign direct in- vestment and increasing exports, achieving sustainable and inclusive green strategies that encompassing ex- ports and investment creation, enabling capacity building, generating employment opportunities, assuring trickling down effect and creating linkages with the local economy to improve socio-economic conditions and eliminating regional disparities.
-
Author Andrey A. Maltsev,The development of non-resource exports is closely linked to the dynamics of medium-sized enterprises. This relationship comprises two strategic goals of Russian economic development stated in the national projects. Based on the data of the entities of the Ural region, the paper analyses the export potential of medium-sized industrial enterprises. In particular, the study examines the structure of the exporting business and clarify how the exporters estimate the state policy supporting non-resource exports. To collect and study data, I used various empirical tools. First, I compiled database of medium-sized industrial enterprises from seven Ural regions (Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Orenburg, and Kurgan Oblasts; Perm Krai; the Republic of Bashkortostan, and the Udmurt Republic). The sources for this database were SPARK-Interfax, open press, annual reports, and results of special queries. Second, the conducted survey of the Ural medium-sized industrial enterprises revealed that 15 % of them are exporters. Simultaneously, the contribution of medium-sized industrial enterprises to regional exports is consistent with the average Russian values; in two regions, this indicator is even higher than the average. The study revealed the difference in the estimations of the important state support measures between medium-sized exporters and non-exporters. While the established exporters choose the reduction of the tax burden as the most important measures, non-exporters prefer information support. However, the most demanded is to create general conditions for exports, ensure the stability of legal and administrative regulations, and implement proactive state policies supporting medium-sized enterprises. The research results can be used for creating and/or updating available regional support programmes for non-resource export of medium-sized enterprises. Further research in this field of non-resource exporters requires monitoring study and regular representative surveys.
REGIONAL FINANCE
-
The study examined the effect of fiscal decentralisation on both vertical and horizontal inequality in 32 provinces of Indonesia in the period from 2005 to 2014 using several fixed effects (FE) estimations. Moreover, we assessed the mediating role of institutional quality in explaining the nexus between fiscal decentralisation and inequality. To complement the econometrics results, we conducted several semi-structured interviews (SSIs) based on expert judgement and focus group discussions (FGDs) among relevant stakeholders. This analysis focussed on the intergovernmental transfer policy designed and implemented at the sub-national government level. Such qualitative analysis started in the last week of March 2019 and ended in the first week of July 2019. The quantitative findings showed that there was a robust, positive, and significant relationship between fiscal decentralisation and vertical inequality when democracy was taken into account. Meanwhile, fiscal decentralisation was negatively correlated with horizontal inequality when the estimation included social capital. In addition, fiscal decentralisation appears to have a marginal impact on horizontal inequality when both democracy and the crime rate are considered in the full sample analysis. However, when we excluded provinces located in Java Island, the impact of fiscal decentralisation on horizontal inequality became clear. Regarding the qualitative aspect, the fieldwork results were consistent with the quantitative findings.
-
Author Valery V. Gamukin,The recurrent shocks that accompany the global banking systems are largely due to the savings and loan behaviour of individuals. The study of the ratio of the deposit and credit transactions of individuals for the period 2012 — 2018 in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation allows identifying the features of this behaviour. Considering the regional specificity, the study examines the patterns of changes in the ratio of deposits and loans of the population. Additionally, the study explains the features of such behaviour comparing the change in the ratio of deposits and loans in the regions and the average Russian values. The hypothesis states that there is a stable relationship between these values. The study applies the comparison method as well as the author’s convergence index of the values of the ratio of deposits and loans of the regional population and the average national values. As a result, the behaviour of depositors and borrowers is characterised by numereous features: while the volume of deposits increases in December, January is marked by a withdrawal of funds from banks. As a rule, the decrease in absolute investments is accompanied by the increase in deposits compared to the loans. However, this rule did not work in the acute phase of the crisis of 2014. Consequently, these features result in a proportional dependence of the indicators of loan debts and the volume of deposits. This dependence is close to the ratio “the volume of debt is half the size of the volume of deposits”. The identified relationship is cyclical (close to the sinusoid). Further development of this approach should focus on a deep analysis of factors affecting the savings and loan behaviour in domestic banks. These factors include innate or acquired tendency to save, strength of the response to external pressure, susceptibility to advertising of bank products, inertial decision-making, etc.