This paper reviews the role of the state material reserve system to ensure economic security of the region. A classification of reserves ensuring economic security of the region was elaborated. A scheme of systematic and structural representation of the state material reserve in order to improve the economic security of the region was suggested. Optimization of operational control of the territorial offices, factories, and settlements of custody within the framework of the state material reserve is one of the most effective instruments to enhance the functioning of the whole system. To solve the problem of technological processes optimization of products acquisition and storage in manufacturings, plants and points of consignment storage of the state material reserve, a static economic-mathematical model was developed. The results can be used to develop appropriate computer systems for support of effective management decisions in the system of state of material reserve.

This paper reviews the structural components of the state reserve theory with elements of decomposition and tools for studies in separate directions. The system of state material reserve, which includes the following components: economy - people - natural environment - is a necessary and sufficient reserve for their operation and development which is having the ability to respond to short-, medium- and long-term fluctuations in the economy and consider the risks of adverse factors appliance. It was determined that a necessary and sufficient reserve for the operation and development of the region is a major factor in ensuring its economic security. A method of diagnostics for the state material reserve system within the economic security of the region is presented and described. The approbation of the methodological apparatus for the assessment of the state material reserve by the example on the Ural Federal District was done.

This paper reviews main approaches to risk assessment. The authors accented attention on the nonlinear approach to the theory of risks. It is proposed to define economic risk as the probability of threats that could have material adverse effect on the economic system under study and to change its current state. The method and the program product designed by the authors integrate a wide range of indicators of economic and financial activities at the regional level in the program-technical complex. This paper describes a new method for assessing synergistic and prediction of risk over long time rows of economic indicators at the regional level, including methods of nonlinear and chaotic dynamics, enabling a pseudo-phase and phase portraits, to determine the volatility, to calculate fractal characteristics and predict the behavior of socio-economic indicators with modernized method of Hurst, to model based on recovery probability distribution function of nonequilibrium potential function, to determine the local and global stability of the regional economy and to identify risks as the probability of the threats of an economic nature.

The paper considers the issues of region’s economic security. Threat characterization of economic security and their influence in terms of 13 life domains is presented. Innovation factor and its contribution into modern economic growth is given. The author defines “innovation security of territorial subdivision” placing emphasis on the innovation society emergency with multi-vector socially oriented economy. It provides world’s standards of life quality and life environment, development of innovation effective economy, with science and engineering progress to result from a certain level of innovation culture providing economic security. The relations of innovation security and innovation culture are considered as one of many life domains of region’s security.

This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer.

In the article, a synergetic method of the economic time series forecasting on the basis of the modified method of Hurst is discussed. It is a new nonlinear method of predicting the development of economic systems according to time series on macro- and mesolevels. The main theorem underlying the forecasting method is formulated and strictly proved: for a chaotic series of a particular length it is possible to specify a time interval where the series is reliably predicted with the Hurst exponent more than 0.5. The examples of the fractal characteristics’ calculation and the forecasting taking into account time of reliable forecast of the socioeconomic indexes’ behavior — oil prices, natural gas prices, the Dow Jones index, the «euro-dollar» prices, the Gross Domestic Product, and some other indicators at the regional level are given. All calculations are carried out by means of the specialized software product upgraded for the task solution set in this article.

This article presents an evolution of theoretical and methodological approaches to the welfare study. Existing theories of wellbeing are grouped according to accounted method of goods and resources distribution among society members. As a welfare future as a category we highlight objective (measured) and subjective (estimated) components. Based on the analysis of scientific literature we determine the ratio of individual and social welfare. The main differences between the categories of “ welfare” and “wealth” are given. The main difference consists in multidirectional changes of welfare and wealth for an increase (decrease) in income of the individual (country). In this article we present an analysis of modern approaches to the definition of welfare: state, institutional and expendable approach. The welfare level estimation is complicated due to the need to consider the subjective component. The article provides an analysis of existing approaches to quantitative welfare evaluation ranging from the most common techniques (HDI, GDP) to alternative techniques (Happy Planet Index).Methodological devices are structured by levels of welfare assessment objects (world, country, region, people). Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of methods we can conclude that the most reliable method is a comprehensive approach, which includes economic, environmental, social, vital and infrastructure indicators. The author’s approach to the formation of a complex methodological tool for individual and territory welfare estimation is presented in this article.