Arhive: #1 2016
NEW RESEARCH INTO REGIONAL ECONOMY PROBLEMS
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Author Tatarkin A. I.,In the article, the task to evaluate the condition of the Russian economy amid slumping energy prices and «exchange of sanctions» is addressed. It also aimes to define the priority directions of the economic policy of the Russian Federation as the full-service institutions capable to maintain the stability and consistency of development. The process of ensuring the spatial structure development of the Russian territories by means of involvement in the development processes the regional and municipal opportunities is offered to initiate with the optimization of the inter-budgetary relations of «municipality — region — federal centre.» All Russian citizens are recommended to treat more strictly and more responsibly the Constitution as the Basic Law supported by the populace and defining the strategic development priorities of the country on a long-term outlook. The methodology of the optimization of the inter-budgetary relations between the Federation, its subjects and municipalities is proved by the evidence-based delineation of powers and responsibility of each level for socio-economic results of work. It is offered to develop the national plan of socio-economic and social development engaging in work the experts and public; its main priorities have to be the improvement of the quality and productivity of the public administration and the spatial structure of the Russian territories. The mechanisms and institutions that help to involve the regions and territories to the implementation of the national plan are proved. The findings and recommendations offered in the paper may be used by the federal authorities in the development and adoption of laws and other regulations on the distribution of authority and optimization of the budgetary process. They are also may be useful for the regional and municipal authorities for the planning and development of the regional spatial structure.
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Author Glazyev S. Yu.,In the absence of the effective system of state regulation, the monetary and financial market not only does not carry out the function of the financing of value-adding investment, but it is also a source of destabilization of the Russian economy. In the article, the analysis of the policy instruments of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is provided. The reasons and consequences of the financial and currency speculation and transition to free ruble exchange rate are considered. The concept of «inflation targeting» is investigated and the conclusion that the transition to the inflation targeting declared by the Central Bank of Russia did not achieve the stated goals is drawn. The need for using the instruments as the control parameters, corresponding to a host of factors of currency system instead of using only refinancing rate is reasoned. The arguments to apply the currency restrictions are considered. The assessment of a current situation of the Russian monetary and financial system is given as uncontrollable. The manipulation of the Russian monetary and financial market from the foreign financial institutions connected with issuers of world currencies is identified as the main political consequence of the currency and monetary policy. The aggravation of stagflation and of crisis phenomena in the Russian economy at the further realization of similar monetary policy is forecasted. In the article, a number of measures for stabilization of the Russian economy by the state regulation of the monetary and credit sphere, which would secure the monetary and financial market against external and internal threats, is offered.
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The subject of this paper is a critique of the selective theoretical modelings of economic realities, which are monistic (quasi-neoliberal) and mathematical-statistical in nature. In this sense, the theme named Contemporary Substitutes of the Political Economy is defined. The aim of this research is that the above-mentioned modeling of economic reality would be described as a deliberate motion from the analysis and explanation of fundamental economic problems towards secondary issues. Therefore, we characterize them as unfair and programmed ways of fogging the essence of economic problems and crisis. We start from the hypothesis that these modelings replaced and virtually eliminated the former synthesized and useful political-economic analysis. In this paper, we have used a descriptive, comparative methods, panel sample and a schematic logic modeling. The results of our research show that the substitution of political economy by neoclassical and neoliberal economics is performed over a longer period, and through prioritizing the mathematical and statistical econometric analysis. As a proof, we present our selective research panel using a sample of 39 issues from five international journals, which can be found in databases SSCI and Scopus. This research is limited by the unavailability of most journals on the Internet and in printed publications. The application area of the research results is an economic theory. In conclusion, we ascertain the need for greater affirmation of political economy, which in combination with new institutional theory, enables a more realistic view of social and economic reality.
REGIONAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
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Pacific Russia is considered as an aqua-territorial macro-region entering the Far Eastern Federal Okrug and its adjacent water area within a 200-mile sea economic zone. The macro-region has the richest nature-resource potential of a dry land and the sea, the possibilities to use the sea transport for communications of Russia and Europe with the countries of the Asian-Pacific region. In Pacific Russia, two latitudinal zones are allocated: the northern and southern ones, consisting of the territories of the Far Eastern Federal Okrug of Russia. Combinations of activities by the subjects and by the latitudinal zones are considered as the territorial structures of economy. The distinctions of these latitudinal zones by their socio-economic potential and the level of development are shown. By the changes of homogeneous activities in the subjects and their ratios, measured in the shares of the added cost, the assessment of the structural transformation of economy was carried out in the latitudinal zones from 2004 to 2013. The tendencies of the transformation of the territorial structures of economy were revealed in the latitudinal zones. The greatest changes of the structures of economy occurred in the northern zone for this period. In the southern zone, the structural transformations of economy were a little less, except for Sakhalin. In this case, in both latitudinal zones, a share of processing manufactures reduced and that of the extracting industries increased. The generalized assessment of the changes in social and economic efficiency (by increased personal income, labor productivity, profits) in correlation with the structural changes in the economy of the regions of Pacific Russia has been made. The authors note that an important premise for building a sufficiently sustainable system of interregional division of labor in Pacific Russia is the location of extractive industries and initial stages of the manufacturing industry activities in the northern zone, while the major manufacturing industries and interregional transport and logistics services are located in the southern zone. The article is intended for the experts and the students, interested in the problems of the development of the eastern regions of Russia.
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The subject matter of this research is the processes of the spontaneous clustering in the regional economy. The purpose is the development and approbation of the modelling algorithm of these processes. The hypothesis: the processes of spontaneous clustering in the social and economic environment are supposed to proceed not linearly, but intermittently. The following methods are applied: agent imitating modelling with an application of FOREL and k-means algorithms. The modelling algorithm is realized in the Phiton 3 programming language. The course regularities of clustering processes in the region are revealed: 1) the clustering processes are intensifying, the production uniformity is increasing; 2) the increase of the level of production uniformity leads to the leveling of customer behavior; 3) the producers of high-differentiated production reduce the level of its differentiation or leave the cluster; 4) the stages of steady functioning are illustrative for clustering processes, their change is followed with arising of bifurcation points; 5) the activation of clustering processes in regional economy leads to the revenue increase of the cluster participants, each of producers and of consumers, and to the growth of synergetic effect values. These results testify the nonlinearity of processes of clustering and ambiguity of their effects. The following conclusions have been drawn: 1) a modelling of the processes of spontaneous clustering in regional economy has showed that they proceed not linearly, a steady progressive development is followed with leaps; 2) the clustering of regional economy leads to the growth of the efficiency indicators of activities of cluster-concerned entities; 3) initiation and activation of the clustering processes requires a certain environment.
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The Publisher and Editor retract this paper because nearly 75% of its content is similar an earlier paper by the same authors “Economic methods of the environment quality regulation in Russia”, which appeared in the journal “The World of New Economy”, 2015, Issue 4 (https://wne.fa.ru/jour/article/view/45/46). According to COPE standards and the journal policies, the Editor and Publisher consider the duplicate publication without the Publisher’s notification as an unethical practice. The journal guidelines for authors make it clear that articles must be original.
The present ecological situation and negative influence of ecological factors on public health in the Russian Federation are analysed in this article. Russia is one of the most polluted countries in the world, and the environmental problem is very important here. In spite of some decrease in pollution during the crisis period, nature does not have time to neutralize pollution accumulated before, and as a result, there is an increase in the pollution concentration. In 66 cities (40 million people) with excess 10 times and more than permitted maximum concentration level, the morbidity is above the average Russian level of 1.6 — 2 times. The forecast of emission according to the various scenarios of Russian development has been done: a pessimistic scenario with a slowdown in economic growth and an optimistic scenario with the acceleration of economic growth. The optimistic scenario is realized under the hypothesis about the oil prices increase and the real rouble exchange rate strengthening at the end of 2015, the revival of investment processes, the successful policy of import substitution, and the competent using of the instruments of monetary and fiscal policy. The pessimistic scenario is implemented under the assumption of negative economic tendency prolongation of 2014. For the forecast analysis, the dynamic inter-industry model with the ecological block was used. At the optimistic scenario implementation, the additional burden on the natural environment should be expected. The most important result of the research is the estimation of the rates of ecological payments which are necessary for performing the functions stimulating the environmental protection activity. The article presents the findings about the need to improve the institutional ecological structures, the scientific basis of pollution taxes, the introductions of the stimulating tools of the economic nature protection mechanism. The results presented in the article may be used both in elaborating the eco-economic forecasts of the development of Russia and as the information and analytical recommendations in developing the directions of the state and regional nature protection policy. -
The most common international standards for the non-financial reporting are reviewed. The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) is determined as an optimal standard of sustainability reporting for the use in the Russian conditions. The environmental component of guidance on the compilation of G4 non-financial reporting of GRI standard is analyzed, the contribution of each aspect in terms of the overall picture of sustainability is determined. The progress of economic science has outlined the importance of incorporating natural components. Moreover, the value of biological resources would be increased through time, and therefore, the economic development of the company cannot be in isolation. To determine the degree of harmony between the economic development and ecological condition of the territory where the company carries out the economic activities, the application of new approaches and methods is necessary. Based on the statistical methods, a correlation model between economic development and environmental performance is developed to identify their relationship on the basis of non-financial reporting. The developed model of correlation can be used by a wide range of oil and gas companies and its general principles by the companies of different industries. The results may be of interest to stakeholders, also, it can be used for administrative purposes, to serve as a platform for forecasting and adoption of administrative decisions to achieve harmony between economic development and environmental performance. The model of correlation has been tested for the data of non-financial reporting of the Russian largest oil and gas company JSC “Surgutneftegas”. The testing has shown a positive relationship between the two systems of the company’s sustainable development: economy and ecology. This obtained result demonstrates a high level of social responsibility of the company in terms of environmental protection. A further study in this field can produce more profound results that would help to achieve a wide sustainable development.
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In the article, on the basis of the world and national approaches to the solution of the food problem, the main vectors of the agricultural development aimed at overcoming the challenges of the XXI century and eventually attain the food independence of Russia are proved. The reasons for the decline per capita food production in the world are revealed; the increasing influence, in addition to the population growth, of the equalization of level and quality of food on its dynamics is noted. The dominant current public incentives form the growth rate of demand in advance the production. It is proposed to correct the strategy of agrarian development, while maintaining the principles of multiculturalism in the economy, focusing on the leading role of the large, vertically integrated business entities, and on the import substitution of the basic foodstuffs through the involvement of regional internal resources, including the development of cooperation principles, historically attended the emergence of commodity-money relations in the village. The growth of productivity of production factors is grounded as the main vector that may rectify the situation. It is recommended to diversify a set of cultivated plants and breeds of animals, as well as to develop a new commodity structure of production. The need for food imports is stressed in view of the fact that for the imported products, which are manufactured using primarily the renewable resources, Russia has to pay the price of the potential non-renewable natural resources, making it strategically disadvantageous. In order to achieve the sustainability of the basic parameters and enhance the results of the agricultural activity, it is recommended to use the tools of economic and mathematical modeling of the distribution of economic resources. The findings will be reflected in the justification of the strategy for the regional agricultural development.
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On the basis of the review of the scientific literature, the category of economic-geographical position (EGP) is formalized. The developed method of international and interregional EGP potential assessment is based on the use of gravity models; in the future, it can be widely used in regional studies to explore the benefits of the spatial location of objects (countries, regions, cities, etc.). These calculations for Russian regions have showed a significant spatial differentiation. The regions located near Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations have the maximum potential of interregional EGP, the potential decreases uniformly to the east. The maximum international EGP potential is concentrated in the regions on the coast of the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Sea of Japan. The potential of the Kaliningrad region is in 5.6 times higher than it is for the Tyva Republic. In addition, it is revealed a significant increase in the total EGP potential in the 2000s, and its shift to the southern regions of the Far East due to the growth of the Asia-Pacific economies. The regions with a high and low efficiency of EGP use are revealed. The results are used to identify the connections between the EGP potential and the indicators of socio-economic development. It is found that a favorable EGP is one of the factors for gross regional product growth, the growth of investment and foreign trade, migration growth and spread of new technologies. Formalizing EGP as a category allows to use it to predict the spatial changes in the socioeconomic development of Russia.
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The purpose of the study is to evaluate the strength and direction of the distribution of the foreign direct investments (FDI) in regional economy. The subject matter of the research is FDI to the regions of Russia. The subject of the study is relevant as it makes possible to estimate the long-term consequences from the restrictions of the West countries (in connection with sanctions) against the inflow of the foreign capital to the regions of the Russian Federation. The study is based on the following hypotheses: 1. Russian regional economy has horizontal (distribution of effects from FDI within an industry) and vertical spillover effects (distribution according to a technological chain, from product suppliers to product consumers). Vertical effects are more important and have greater amplitude than horizontal effects. An industry competition is one of the causes of negative horizontal spillover effect, and the scale of the company is the reason of positive horizontal spillover effect. 2. FDI generates the positive regional spillover effects on the productivity of domestic firms in the Russian economy. 3. Regional industry specificity influences the sign and magnitude of spillovers from FDI. 4. Time sensitivity is revealed for horizontal spillovers, so the regional effects may change the direction. As an empirical basis of the study, the statements of 23567 Russian companies with FDI and 25354 Russian enterprises without FDI for the 5 years were used. The methodology of the research is the calculation of spillover effects, Cobb-Douglas production function and panel data regression. The study has found, that the direct vertical spillover effects are almost absent. That means that industrial consumers do not notice the effect of inward FDI. At the same time, the converse effect related to the product suppliers is positive, but as the direct effect, it is not more important in any group of regions then the horizontal effect. The Russian economy has a positive regional spillover effect of FDI. The positive effect of FDI for a region of investment attractiveness, first of all, extends to regions with similar investment climate, and after that residually extends to less successful regions. The regional spillover effect is unstable and has high volatility. Therefore, regional administration has to develop the anti-crisis policy and try to improve the investment climate. The findings of the study may be useful for the regional authorities to formulate the investment policy.
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Author Uruzbaeva N. A.,The existence of the specific conditions and development factors of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the regions of Kazakhstan supposes the differentiated state policy in order to maintain a favorable business climate. The article presents the results of the research whose purpose was to determine the main issues and directions of the improvement of the business climate in the regions. This allows to intensify the activities of local authorities in support of SMEs considering the peculiarities of the territories’ development. The subject matter of this research is the conditions and factors generating the business climate of the region. As a hypothesis, a direct connection between the prevailing regional business climate and the development of the quantitative indicators of active SMEs in the field was assumed. The study used the method of comparative analysis, sociological methods of focus groups, survey research, statistical methods and statistical methods of ranking and grouping. The article theoretically substantiates the correctness of the usage of «business climate» category as a scope of the study in the framework of the project of «Implementation of «Business Climate» as an Independent Rating», which makes possible the argumentation of the used methodology and concretization of the factors affecting the functioning of SMEs in the regions. This research has confirmed the direct correlation between the established business climate in the regions and quantitative indicators of the development of SMEs at the local level. Such factors as “financial resources” and “government support” have been determined as limiting the business development in a greater degree. In conclusion, a set of measures to improve the business climate in the region both at national and regional levels of government has been provided. In addition, it has been concluded that to generate a favorable business environment in the regions of Kazakhstan, it is necessary to make a smooth transition from a policy of “identification and punishment of unfair entrepreneurs” to a policy of “prevention and promotion of good business”. The results of the research can be used in the work of the local executive authorities in order to improve the business climate in the regions of the country.
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
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Author Solovyev A. K.,The article has been retracted due to it’s duplicate publication. Not less than 75% of the content is similar to the next previously published papers: 1. Solovyev A. Social and Economic Consequences of Increase of Pension Age in the Russian Federation. Ekonomicheskaya Politika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 180-192. 2. Solovyev A.K. Pension Age Increase in the Russian Federation: Demographic Conditions and Macroeconomic Consequences. Journal of the New Economic Association, 2015, ¹3 (27). 3. Solovyev A.K., Popov V.Yu. Social and Economic Consequences of Increase of Pension Age in the Russian Federation, Bulletin of The Financial University, 2015, ¹ 3(87). 4. Solovyev A.K. Actuarial study of demographic factors contributing to the higher retirement age, Economics of Contemporary Russia, 2016, ¹1. 5. Actuarial grounds for conditions of upword movement of the retirement age in the Russian Federation, Labour And Social Relations, 2015, ¹4. The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of the demographic crisis in the country’s fiscal system. In the article, the pension system for the first time is considered as a multifactorial model, which during the different historical periods corrects the degree of its dependence on the interdependent complex of macroeconomic and demographic factors. The economically sound and socially correct accounting of the interference of retirement age and the specified development factors of pension system requires a fundamental change in the methodological approaches to the problem of raising the retirement age by using the actuarial methods of forecasting. The actuarial analysis of the problem of retirement age shows that the perception of the linear dependence on demographic parameters of the age when the national pension is awarded cannot be considered as a tool for regulating the efficiency of the pension system. For the science-based solution to the problem of rising the retirement age, along with the dynamics of demographic parameters, it is necessary to take into account the whole range of macroeconomic conditions for the state development as well as the long-term socio-economic consequences. Another significant result of the study are the specific parameters of the actuarial assessments of the impact of demographic and macroeconomic conditions of increasing the retirement age in Russia, conducted using the state statistical data. The practical proposals to mitigate the negative economic consequences are formulated. The key conclusion reached is that the raising of the retirement age should be aimed exclusively at the economic stimulation of the formation of the pension rights of the insured in the long term, rather than to the short-term savings of the state budget. The methodological approaches grounded in the work, and the quantitative results of the actuarial calculations may be applied in the shaping the public pension policy when preparing the regulations for raising the retirement age, the pension formula for calculating the pension rights of the insured, the mechanism of pension indexation.
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The subject matter of the study is the internal migration of the Russian population from 1960 to 2010. The study is based on the information about the spatial population movements, published in the proceedings of the all-Union censuses of 1970, 1979, 1989, and of the all-Russian censuses of 2002 and 2010. The main flows and directions of migration are considered. The methodological analysis of the migration was performed by means of cross-cutting indicators to assess the dynamics of migration processes over a long period. Special attention is given to the rural-urban internal migration, as its volumes, patterns and impacts have not been adequately tested and evaluated to date. Relative indicators, which have not been used previously to assess the studied processes are proposed and calculated. To ensure the comparability of the materials of the censuses of the Soviet and post-Soviet periods under consideration, the economic zoning adopted prior to 2000 was used, and the uniformity of administrative scale was ensured. The hypothesis that from decade to decade, there was a decrease of the intensity of territorial mobility for both urban and rural populations is confirmed. The inter-regional migration flows are considered; the different trends and intensity of migration processes for more than four decades are specified. The dynamics of the structure of migrants on the basis of length of residence in the place of permanent residence in different regions is analyzed. The study has shown that the development and preservation of the prevailing trends in that period continues to adversely affect the territorial distribution of the population and the regional socio-economic development of the country. The findings can find their application in the correction of regional socio-economic and migration policies.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
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Author Zharikov M. V.,The subject matter of this article is the mutual international settlements between Russia (i.e. its border regions) and China in yuans. An advantage of such settlements is determined by the amount of money which can be spared by the Russian importers of Chinese products in case of direct trade. The topic of the article encompasses the analysis of export-import operations and national currencies’ use, in particular, the yuan, in the cross-border settlements between Russia and China. The objective of this article is to reveal the role of China in the international activities of the Russian near-border regions on the basis of the analysis of export and import statistics database. The hypothesis of this article is that the dynamics of Chinese imports to the Russian nearborder regions correlates with the amount of the yuans traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The article produces forecasts of Chinese imports to the Russian near-border regions and the amount of money, which can be spared by the Russian importers in the case of a transition in bilateral settlements to the yuan. The outcomes of the article include the calculated indicators of the efficiency of the direct trade between China and Russia and of the coverage of Chinese imports in the Russian near-border regions by the yuan. The findings of this article are recommended to Russian inporters as a reference point to increase the profitability of export-import operations with China, and to federal and local governments to create the Russian external economic strategy. The authors comes to the conclusion that if the Chinese imports to the Russian border region were in the yuan, then the yuans volume of trade on the Russian foreign exchange market would allow the direct settlements with China.
INDUSTRY AND INTER-INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS
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A significant increase in oil production in the Tomsk region can be achieved by a better development of the license areas at the disposal of oil-producing companies, active prospecting, introduction of innovative technologies to increase the oil recovery, as well as active oil extraction from unconventional horizons. This article reviews the activities of the oil-producing companies of the Tomsk region for the past 10 years, and proves the potential of increasing oil production of both traditional and difficult to obtain oil reserves, concentrated in the Bazhenov and Tyumen Formations and the Lower Jurassic sediments. Technologically, Russia is significantly lagging behind the economically developed countries in the extraction of hard unconventional hydrocarbon resources, primarily, the United States. The observed «shale revolution» was due to the complex of financial and tax breaks for oil companies, from which mainly medium and small companies were benefited. As a result, this requires an increase in investment on the part of economic entities and regional authorities, as well as additional tax benefits, considering the quality and types of actual and prospective raw materials produced in the region, in contrast to the declared benefits in Eastern Siberia. The introduction of tax incentives justified by the authors and the implementation of public-private partnership will ensure the profitability of the development of marginal and difficult-to-obtain oil deposits of the Tomsk region in the long term, which in turn should ensure the stability of economic development of the subject of the Russian Federation.
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An evaluation of healthcare systems effectiveness of the regions of the Russian Federation (federal districts) was conducted using the Minmax method based on the data available at the United Interdepartmental Statistical Information System. Four groups of components (i.e. availability of resources; use of resources; access to resources and medical effectiveness) decomposed into 17 items were analyzed. The resource availability was measured by four indicators, including the provision of doctors, nurses, hospital beds; agencies providing health care to the population. Use of resources was measured by seven indicators: the average hospital stay, days; the average bed occupancy, days; the number of operations per 1 physician surgical; the cost per unit volume of medical care: in outpatient clinics, day hospitals, inpatient and emergency care. Access to the resources was measured by three indicators: the satisfaction of the population by medical care; the capacity of outpatient clinics; the average number of visits to health facility. The medical effectiveness was also measured by three indicators: incidence with the "first-ever diagnosis of malignancy"; life expectancy at birth, years; the number of days of temporary disability. The study of the dynamics of the components and indexes for 2008–2012 allows to indicate a multidirectional influence on the regional healthcare system. In some federal districts (e.g. North Caucasian), the effectiveness decreases due to resource availability, in others (South, North Caucasian) — due to the use of resources, in others (Far Eastern, Ural) — due to access to resources. It is found that the effectiveness of the healthcare systems of the federal districts differs significantly. In addition, the built matrix proves the variability the of effectiveness (comparison of expenditures and results) of healthcare systems of the federal districts of the Russian Federation: the high results can be obtained at high costs (the Far Eastern federal district) as well as at low costs (the Volga federal district). There is no possibility of reaching average results under any expenditures level (i.e. neither high, nor low, nor average). The proposed method of evaluation may become a basis for the creation of the strategic development programs of regional healthcare and the modeling of various scenarios for its realization while reaching the stable balance.
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The issue of the development prospects of the Russian economy and the economy of its individual branches in the regions is highly relevant in terms of the increasing crises and economic development challenges. The scope of the study is a garment industry of the Siberian Federal District, which includes 12 subjects, and only six of them develop the garment industry actively. There are the regions of Kemerovo, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Tomsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai and the Republic of Khakassia. The subject matter of the research is the state and prospects of the garment industry of the Siberian Federal District. It also includes the assessment of the garment industry as one of the sub-sectors of the light industry in terms of its competitiveness in the domestic market. The purpose of the comprehensive study is to determine the conditions and factors affecting the development of the industry, as well as to identify its development reserves and competitiveness on the basis of industrial cluster’s generation. The hypothesis of this study is that in the Siberian Federal District, there are a need and reserves to create a cluster of the garment industry. The main methods of the study are the comparative analysis, the expert assessment of the sector in certain regions of the Siberian Federal District, as well as the assessment of possible formation of the industrial cluster in the region. The results of the study are the evaluation of the competitiveness and prospects of the garment industry in Russia and the Siberian Federal District (a low level of development and competitiveness); the evaluation of the development level of the garment industry in the Federal District, which have showed the demand for apparel products from the population and enterprises, as well as the conditions for the provision of clothing manufacture with natural fabrics and synthetic materials, labor resources and research and development achievements; also the justification of the existing potential for development of a sectoral cluster by means of pooling together the productions and economic communications of the Novosibirsk and Omsk regions at the initial stage. The obtained results should be used to strengthen works for the development of regional industrial cluster (with a creation of a working group at the regional governments, the garment industry development programs, and practical measures for its realization), as well as a creation of conditions for stimulation of investment activity of entrepreneurs. The research has confirmed the hypothesis, that in the Siberian Federal District, there are a need and reserves to create a cluster of the garment industry.
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Author Bucher S.,At present, the tourist industry is one of the fastest growing economic branches of the global economy. For many countries, it brings a significant portion of revenues to their national economies. In the article, the identification and assessment of the secondary data of the World Economic Forum published in The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report are carried out. In the Report, the strengths and weaknesses of some countries in the international tourist market are specified in detail. The plan of the analysis is in a more precise specification of competitiveness indices, which consist of compound indices: I — legal framework; II — business environment and infrastructure; III — human, cultural and natural resources for the Russian Federation and some states of Post-Soviet geopolitical space. The goals of the paper are the evaluation of the 14 factors that affect destination competitiveness and the comparison of the competitiveness levels in the Russian Federation. The paper also aimed to provide an understanding of the Russian position in the international tourism market and provide suggestions in order to improve weaknesses of the country. The competitiveness ranking 2015 for the tourism infrastructure, prioritization of travel and tourism, and national tourism perceptions suggest that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia rank the top, relative to other former Soviet Union countries in the sample. Since these countries outperform in a tourism infrastructure, it is likely that they continuously try to improve their physical and financial infrastructure for tourists in the country. Therefore, it is a great challenge for Russia to constantly monitoring new trends and occurrences in the international tourism market, which are more diverse needs and demands of the tourist clientele. The findings of this study also shed light on the competitiveness of the Russian Federation operating in the international tourism market. As understood from the findings, there still exists a large gap between the Russian Federation and especially the top ten leaders in terms of tourism competitiveness.
MODERN TOOLS FOR THE ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF ECONOMIC PROCESSES
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One of the most relevant issues of the day is the forecasting problem of climatic changes and mitigation of their consequences. The official point of view reflected in the Climate doctrine of the Russian Federation consists in the recognition of the need of the development of the state approach to the climatic problems and related issues on the basis of the comprehensive scientific analysis of ecological, economic and social factors. For this purpose, the integrated estimation models of interdisciplinary character are attracted. Their functionality is characterized by the possibility of construction and testing of various dynamic scenarios of complex systems. The main purposes of the computing experiments described in the article are a review of the consequences of hypothetical participation of Russia in initiatives for greenhouse gas reduction as the Kyoto Protocol and approbation of one of the calculation methods of the green gross domestic product representing the efficiency of environmental management in the modelling. To implement the given goals, the MERGE optimization model is used, its classical version is intended for the quantitative estimation of the application results of nature protection strategies. The components of the model are the eco-power module, climatic module and the module of loss estimates. In the work, the main attention is paid to the adaptation of the MERGE model to a current state of the world economy in the conditions of a complicated geopolitical situation and introduction of a new component to the model, realizing a simplified method for calculation the green gross domestic product. The Project of scenario conditions and the key macroeconomic forecast parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia for 2016 and the schedule date of 2017−2018 made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation are used as a basic source of entrance data for the analysis of possible trajectories of the economic development of Russia and the indicators of their ecological efficiency. Calculations show that Russia has reserves allowing its participation in the nature protection initiatives consisting in the non-exceedance of the emissions levels of 1990 by 2020−2025. At the same time, a goal of increasing the ecological efficiency of the Russian gross domestic product is relevant and demands to address this matter urgently. We suppose that modelling results may be in demand by the competent bodies taking managerial decisions.
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The innovative development sets large-scale and challenging tasks, which need to be addressed in the lack-of-knowledge conditions and require the coordination and integration of numerous expert structures, which are scattered around the world and have different status and competencies. One of the mechanisms of integrating the partners’ intellectual and financial resources is provided by the technology platforms. The article discusses the nature and functions of technology platforms and analyzes the experience of their application in different countries with a special emphasis on universities. The article gives an overview of the various interpretations of technology platform concepts. It also describes the development and implementation of the technological platform at the Ural Federal University (research and education centre ‘ENGEC’), which was targeted at organizing anticipatory learning in the sphere of energy engineering and high-tech industries; its mechanism and role in improving different university activities and processes are shown. This platform is based on the original methodology ‘Integrated System of Consulting, Training, and Transformation’ (ISCT), which includes authentic methods and technologies, which are used in the educational process. A significant advantage of this methodology is that it can be applied in university education as well as in corporate training integrated with innovative activities.
REGIONAL FINANCE
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The article presents the results of the research of the methodological and information infrastructure of the integrated risk management in a regional commercial bank. Within the study of the general development tendencies of the regional banking services market, the most significant risks for a regional bank are revealed. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the stress testing technique developed at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. It is based on a technique of dynamic economic and mathematical modeling with the application of information technologies. The created combination of the methodological and instrumental tools allows to carry out the dynamic scenario analysis of the activity of a commercial bank for the identification of potential risks and for the development of the strategy of financial management reducing the potential risks and leveling the consequences of their realization. The received tool allows during the computer test to watch the predicted dynamics of the condition of the key indicators of the activity of a regional commercial bank changing under the influence of the exogenous regulatory measures and instruments of bank management applied to decrease risk and at the same time to introduce adjustments in the perspective strategy of management. As the result of the analysis, the universal management model of the main bank risks in a regional commercial bank within three alternative scenarios is created. The software product allowing to develop and acquire the practical skills of the students in banking is developed. It also may help to develop the methodological support for the regulation of the organizational procedures of risk management in a regional commercial bank. The received software product may be used in a system of the improving the professional skills, and also for obtaining the expected data in a risk management system in a regional commercial bank.
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The article deals with the questions of the definition of the semi-constant component of current liabilities of a bank. The purpose of this article is to develop a scientific and methodological approach to determine the semi-constant component of the current liabilities of a bank under the conditions of the complexity of data acquisition and processing of the data on factors that influence on demand deposits. The main hypothesis is the assumption of the heterogeneity of the variance of the daily cumulative sum of demand deposits. The analysis of scientific and methodological approaches that allow determining a stable component of current liabilities proves the need for further improvement of scientific instruments. In particular, a coefficient analysis that is proposed by some of the scholars, mainly, considers the average values of turnover on accounts, which in turn, can vary considerably throughout the calendar year. The use of the probability distributions to determine the expected value of the constant sum of deposits is possible only in the case of “ideal” financial conditions, when the impact of factors on the aggregate sum of deposits is not taken into account. The developed statistical models leave out the possible heterogeneity of the dispersion of this balance. In the article, it is proposed to apply econometric methods, namely, the methods of time series analysis to test the hypothesis of the variance heterogeneity of the cumulative sum of demand deposits, using daily data. In particular, the formalization and evaluation of EGARCH-model parameters are conducted. The EGARCH-model allows to take into account the non-linear, asymmetric effects of fluctuations in the financial series. The determination of the conditional constant component of demand deposits is proposed on the basis of the revealed regularities. The results of the research prove the hypothesis of the non-stationary character of the variance in daily balance of demand deposits. It may result from the economic shocks influence. The proposed scientific and methodological approach may be applied in the bank liabilities management both at the micro level and at the regional level of banking network.
OPINION
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The function of the state — the management of strategic resources — becomes relevant on the threshold of the post-market economy and global depletion of mineral resources. The economic and political situation in the world is aggravated by the crisis of state system as the institution of management. In the article, the approach to the definition of the strategic resources of the state is presented. The examples of measures taken by the modern states to overcome this crisis are given. The thesis that the possession of strategic resources at the crisis moments of history becomes the essential tool in the political, economic and military confrontation of powers is proved. The question of the politicization of the market of mineral resources is brought up, and the current examples of such phenomenon are given. In the article, the arguments that the management of strategic resources in the near future will become the monopoly of the state are adduced. This implies a sharp weakening of the private part in this domain/sphere as it is in the interest of survival of the state and populace. The problem of the global depletion of mineral resources which influences the management of strategic resources is considered. The statistical analysis of mineral wealth in Russia and in the world is provided. Institutional (cultural) arguments for the sharp weakening of market tools in the management of strategic resources are analysed. The genesis of the study of the mentality of Slavs, Muslims and Hindus is given, according to which the only private possession of natural resources would be impossible and inadmissible. In the article, the various options of the growth of the state influence on the strategic resources in the new economic policy developed in Russia are offered.
XIII INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF YOUNG RESEARCHERS ON REGIONAL ECONOMICS, OCTOBER 2015, EKATERINBURG (RUSSIA), INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS UB RAS
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The article is devoted to the variable and disproportionate funding of science in the Russian economy. The paper is focused on the analysis of the Russian financial flows into scientific research and development. The paper explains the dynamics of the main investment flows trends into research and development, highlights the causes of financial flows variable dynamics directed to the high-tech industry. In the work, the investment situation in the Russian market was compared with the foreign experience. The genesis of the optimal financial distribution problems showed the need to develop a dynamic model with the built-in differential equations to forecast the behavioral dynamics of investment flows. We selected the statistical indicators, which have a significant impact on the dynamics of investment flows directed into science. To assess the dynamics of investment flows, we have developed a methodology, which provides a cumulative assessment of the territory investment attractiveness. The multifactor integral estimation allows to describe a data array, reflecting the accumulation of investment attractiveness over time depending on the dynamics of the resultant socio-economic proportional indexes. Due to the accumulation of a data array over time using a differential equation, it is possible to obtain a forecast of the volume of the territory investment attractiveness. The amount of the projected investment flows depends directly on the amount of the investment attractiveness accumulated for the previous step of model’s time. The integrated assessment of the investment attractiveness of the scientific sector in the region allows to reveal the investors preference of the regions with a high concentration of research institutions and higher education institutes.
CRITIQUE
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Author Sukharev O. S.,The question of assessing and using the socio-economic potential of Russia is considered within the fundamental monograph prepared on the basis of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The main achievements of the large research of the problem of the Russian socio-economic potential conducted by a group of authors with the definition of the most rational and important suggestions for the prospects of the Russian economy are allocated. Certain critical comments are noted, and the author’s position is specified concerning the policy of the new industrialization and innovative development within the modern scientific polemic about the subject and tools of economic policy, and also the need of ensuring it by the system efficiency. The main achievement of the presented teamwork of the scientists of the Ural economic school is the development of a methodological framework and hardware (techniques, models) of the diagnostics of the socio-economic potential of the economic system of any level of complexity (despite the main specialization of this school on the regional research) and measuring base. These achievements will give the chance of more exact identification of a condition of the system and definition of the direction of its movement, which will make it possible to affect the mode of this dynamics by the economic policy of regional and federal level.