Analysis and monitoring of energy security and prediction of indicator values using conventional non-linear mathematical programming

This paper describes the concept of energy security and a system of indicators for its monitoring. The indicator system includes more than 40 parameters that reflect the structure and state of fuel and energy complex sectors (fuel, electricity and heat & power), as well as takes into account economic, environmental and social aspects. A brief description of the structure of the computer system to monitor and analyze energy security is given. The complex contains informational, analytical and calculation modules, provides applications for forecasting and modeling energy scenarios, modeling threats and determining levels of energy security. Its application to predict the values of the indicators and methods developed for it are described. This paper presents a method developed by conventional nonlinear mathematical programming needed to address several problems of energy and, in particular, the prediction problem of the security. An example of its use and implementation of this method in the application, "Prognosis", is also given.