Assessment of the shadow economy development tendencies in the Sverdlovsk region

The paper deals with the analysis of the shadow economy dynamics in the Sverdlovsk region. The analysis covers the period since 2001 to 2009, and it also concerns medium and long term since 2011 to 2020. In the course of the analysis economic and mathematical models of shadow economy in the context of changing socio-economic environment have been applied. For the medium- and long-term analysis the record of economic, social and technological factors’ influence on the shadow sector of economy of the Sverdlovsk region was used. For the long-term analysis of shadow economic dynamics key scenarios of economic development with generation of base cases of further transformation of the shadow sector of economy have been considered. Inertial, innovation and optimistic development alternatives have been considered as basic scenarios of economic development in posse. A complex of steps aimed at reduction of the shadow sector segment in the medium- and long-term outlook has been suggested.