ACCOUNT METHODS OF UNCERTAINTY OF DATA AT FORECASTING OF DEVELOPMENT OF HYDROCARBON REGION

In this paper the existence of two equally main groups of the uncertainty of data (economical and geological) factors are fixed. The choice’s procedure of the mostly effective variants of the region’s hydrocarbon resources usage is offered. It based on the combinatorial-probabilistic technique of the economic evaluation and gas and oil usage movement choice, added by geologic-mathematical methods. The forecast of the gas and oil output in the Komi Republic after 2020 based on the unexplored resources are given.