THE EXPERIENCE OF RETROALTERNATIVE PROGNOSING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT (ON THE EXAMPLE OF AGRICULTUREAL COMPLEX OF SVERDLOVSKAYA AREA IN 1990 YEARS)

This article demonstrates the heuristic opportunities for analysing regional social-economic systems by using the methods of retro-alternativistics. The article also substantiates the methodological aspects of using cliometrics for modelling economic processes which never took place in the past. On the basis of retro-alternative forecasting method the counterfact imitation modelling of agricultural development in the Middle Urals in 1995 − 1998 has been accomplished.