The modelling device of forecasting of demographic parameters of region is offered in the article. In basis of it lays using of regression analysis method. Scripts of socio-economic development of Sverdlovsk region for the period of 2006 − 2015 under the factors entering into models are developed. Results of the forecast of the basic parameters of demographic sphere of Sverdlovsk region for the period up to 2015 are resulted.

The basic problems of development of socio-demographic sphere in Russia at the present stage and the tendency of their change are considered in the article. The methodical device of diagnostics of socio-demographic safety of territories is offered. In basis of it lays using of indicator analysis method. The researches based both on official statistics, and on calculations of the latent dynamic characteristics are considered. The special attention is given to diagnostics of real number of addicts. The condition and dynamics of change of socio-demographic safety in federal districts of the Russian Federation for the period of 2000 - 2006 is shown. The primary goals are put which performance will lead to a output of Russia from the developed demographic crisis.

The basic problems of development of socio-demographic sphere in Sverdlovsk region at the present stage are considered. The methodical approach of the account of influence of the enterprises of the large integrated structures on indicators socio-demographic safety of territories of municipal level is presented. The approbation estimation of influence of the enterprises of the large integrated structures on socio-demographic safety on an example of municipal unions of Sverdlovsk region for 2000-2006 is executed.

The basic problems of current socio-demographic development of regions in Russia are considered raising the need to formulate and solve the task of maintaining its efficiency. The definition of “effective socio-demographic territory development” concept is suggested and given is the mechanism of its maintenance under conditions of second demographic transition from the systematic approach point of view. The estimation method of how successfully the demographic policy is being carried out in the region is suggested in the framework of the abovementioned mechanism. This method has been approved by the Ural federal district territories.