Arhive: #1 2020


Modelling the Assessment of the Impact of Industry Factors on the Level of the Territoriesí Socio-Economic Development and Economic Security

Nowadays, folk arts and crafts are not only a form of economic activity, but also a part of the Russian cultural heritage. However, in the context of crisis, slowdown of production volumes, and reduction of output, the independent existence of this industry is threatened. What is more, these factors jeopardize the level of economic security of the territories, where this type of activity primarily creates the territoryís value added and serves as the only source of income for its population. The paper aims to discover such instruments of impact on the development of territories taking into account their industry specificity, as the point pressure on them will lead to economic growth. In this regard, we determined the studyís objectives. They include identification of factors that most affect the industryís development; calculation of a composite integral indicator for assessing the level of the industryís development in a particular region; quantitative assessment of the identified factorsí impact on the industryís development in the pilot regions. The main research methods are integrated analysis for ranking the regions, and correlation and regression modelling for assessing the impact of industry factors on the level of the territoriesí socio-economic development. We hypothesise that the creation of conditions for the development of the regionís main industry will not only stimulate its socio-economic growth, but also provide the necessary level of economic security. As a result, we have compiled a rating of the territories (including the Arkhangelsk, Vladimir, Nizhny Novgorod, Moscow regions and the Republic of Dagestan) and identified stimulating and discouraging factors in the industryís development (historical, cultural, economic and social). Based on these findings, we have determined the instruments for influencing the industry in constituent entities. In conclusion, the proposed approach allowed us to establish the stimulating and discouraging factors in the industryís development and to determine the tools for influencing the industry of an individual constituent entity in order to increase the regionís level of socio-economic development and ensure its economic security.