Arhive: #2 2013


Methodological foundations and Modern methods of the population projection

In the article, the author classified the methods of population projection on the basis of generalization of extensive theoretical and empirical data of national and foreign researchers. Particularly, the method of shifting ages or the component-method was allocated. The article emphasizes the approaches of possible hypotheses of demographic processes' development on the long and short run. The author in detail submitted the list of factors, which most can affect dynamics of birth rate, mortality, migratory mobility of the population in Russia in the short term, such as stability of economic growth; growth of living standards and quality of life of the population; maintenance of traditional family values; health system improvement; improvement of ecological situation, etc. As an example, the author presented her own calculation results of the expected number of the population of a municipal unit city of Yekaterinburg up to 2030. Further, analysis of the obtained data was made. In the paper, the importance of population projection for socioeconomic planning of development of the country as a whole and its certain territories is shown.