Arhive: #2 2013


The modelling of migratory flows into the region

In the article, the values of management of migratory processes for labor market stabilizing for the purpose of definition of categories of the population necessary for the country/region and a number of manpower are shown. Also, measures of economic incentives of migratory inflow (outflow) of the population in the necessary scales and directions for an increase in a contribution of external migrations in the demographic and labor capacity of the country, and the changing of the direction of internal migration flows according to the socioeconomic and national interests of Russia and its regions are presented. Mathematical and economic-mathematical modelling in the management of labor migration are considered as a component of the mechanism of region's labor market stabilization. In this regard, the system of indicators allowing most adequately to estimate a migratory situation and its influence on the formation of labor potential and development of regional labor market is analyzed. The assessment is given to the existing methods of the migration modeling used for the management of the labor migration processes, forecasting, planning, and optimum distribution of manpower. As the analysis result, the most acceptable methods of the migration forecasting, which can be used in justification of the measures directed to the achievement of balanced supply and demand of labor and, respectively, ensuring sustained economic growth and transition to an innovative way of economic development, are defined.