Arhive: #2 2011


Modeling of the opportunities and effects of industry modernization based on nanotehnologies

The questions related to the evaluation of industrial modernization possibilities of nanotechnology are reviewed in this paper, restrictive barriers are marked, the author's typology of levels of nanotechnological developments' interaction provided. The author shows models which formalize the diffusion of nanotechnology - a model of technological dynamics and a model of nanotechnolog modernization. A large part of the paper is devoted to methodological approaches to the assessment of synergistic effects of nanotechnology, such as technological roadmaps, the analysis of external effects, optional theory and dynamic analysis of market structure. A new typology of interaction levels between nanotechnology and industrial operating systems, taking into account the direction and depth of their interaction, is suggested. Three types of functions of nanotechnological developments are highlighted: addition, substitution and field construction. A matrix of levels and types of interaction of nanotechnology to their functions is constructed and a model of interaction between nanotechnology and traditional technologies as well. The bases for evaluating the synergetic effect of nanotechnology are technological roadmaps, which possible scenarios are reflected in the modified inter-sectoral balance. Using roadmaps for evaluating the effects of nanotechnology will not only review the likely scenarios and their potential profitability, but also help to choose the optimal path in terms of resource cost and socio-economic, fiscal and environmental performance of nanotechnologies. Synergetic effects are conditioned by additional benefits or costs of socio-economic system due to changes in its structure, so the effects can be evaluated through positive or negative externalities. The synergistic effect of nanotechnology can be defined as the non-vicarious quantitative market effect for subjects who are not participating in the creation or consumption of nanotechnology. For the evaluation of synergistic effects of nanotechnology implementation, an optional theory can be used; in particular, such parameters as an option on the timing of the project, the option to reject the project, the option to carry out sequential investment, the option for the extension, the option to decline and the option to suspension can be used.