Arhive: #1 2007


THE PROGNOSIS OF RUSSIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IMPLEMENTED THROUGH REGRESSION ANALYSIS

The article illustrates the results of investigation the major internal and external factors which influence the development of the defense industry, as well as the results of regression analysis which quantitatively displays the factorial contribution in the growth rate of Russian defense industry. On the basis of calculated regression dependences the authors fulfilled the medium-term prognosis of defense industry. Optimistic and inertial versions of defense product growth rate for the period up to 2009 are based on scenario conditions in Russian economy worked out by the Ministry of economy and development. In conclusion authors point out which factors and conditions have the largest impact on successful and stable operation of Russian defense industry.